Supply response of some agricultural crops grown in TR83 region

This study is based on TR83 Region (Samsun, Tokat, Çorum, Amasya) and covers the study period 1997-2016. As a key product of the agricultural crops grown in the region and have an importance for the region; wheat from the grain group, sunflower from oil seeds, chickpea from legumes, potatoes from tuber crops and sugar beet from cash crops, namely, in total, five products have been included to the study. The most appropriate trend equations and function type were determined with Trend Analysis which is one of the "Time Series Analyzes" for the current prices of the products which is the price that manufacturer bought, that examined during the study period and data sets related to production amounts. Then, the best predictive model was selected among the Trend Analysis from the Time Series Models, Moving Average Method, Single Exponential Smoothing Method and Double Exponential Smoothing Method with the most suitable model selected in this way, the current prices and production amounts of the products have been tried to be estimated with the help of five-year overall tendency and projection analysis values, figures and graphs. If a generalization is to be made as a result of the analyzes; it has been observed that, in the context of the five-year projection, product current prices have steadily increased, some products have increased production in accordance with the law of supply, some products have not complied with this law and production has decreased. In this study, the reasons for this incoordination were examined in detail. Finally, a panel regression method was used to determine the supply responses of the examined products. When the variables, which are thought that they affect supply, are considered; (t-1) period real price variable has a significant effect on wheat, chickpea and potato; (t-1) period rival product real price variable has an effect on wheat and sunflower; variable of the price of the motor has an effect on sunflower, potato and sugar beet; the average annual amount of precipitation variable has an effect on all products taken to work; annual average temperature variable has an effect on wheat, chickpea and sugar beet; variable of the number of tractors affects sunflower and wheat; agricultural support variable has an effect on sunflower and potato; and finally, GSRUD (Gross Real Production Value) variables have significant effect on only chickpea supply, and also, it is seen as statistically significant variables.