Tunisia during the Arab Spring: Military neutrality and its reflection on the public opinion

This thesis examines the role of military neutrality in Tunisia during the Arab Spring, focusing on the coup-proofing strategies implemented by Presidents Habib Bourguiba and Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. The research challenges the prevailing explanations of military neutrality primarily based on professionalism and institutionalization, arguing that deliberate political marginalization, downsizing, and budget reductions played a significant role. Through a detailed historical analysis of civil-military relations during Bourguiba's and Ben Ali's regimes, the study demonstrates how these leaders systematically marginalized the military to prevent coups. The Barakat Sahil affair, a pivotal event involving the torture and marginalization of military officers, further deepened the resentment within the TAF, influencing their neutral stance during the Arab Spring. Additionally, data from the WVS reveals high public trust in the military post-Arab Spring and strong advocacy for its withdrawal from political affairs. This thesis provides a comprehensive understanding of the factors that shaped the TAF's behavior, emphasizing the importance of historical and institutional contexts in analyzing military responses to political crises. The findings offer valuable insights into the role of coup-proofing strategies in maintaining military neutrality and facilitating democratic transitions in transitional societies.