Türkiye'de krizler ışığında döviz kuru devalüsyonu

Contractionary depreciation hypothesis has been frequently investigated for Latin American countries after 1970s due to liability dollarization problems. Unlike the traditional view this hypothesis claims net effect of real depreciations is contractionary in economy. After studied for Latin American countries, contractionary depreciation hypothesis has been studied especially for other developing economies. This thesis investigates the contractionary depreciation for Turkey. In Turkey's economic history various exchange rate regimes were conducted. Also, Turkey experienced massive economic crisis, thereby convenient country for contractionary depreciation investigations. In this thesis, we employ vector auto regression (VAR) model by constructing our main variables as real effective exchange rate, inflation and real GDP. Besides main variables we add various alternative variables to enhance the investigation. Although we construct our model inspired by Kamin and Rogers (2000), this thesis makes three contributions: 1998 Q1-2016Q1 period covers two exchange rate regimes; fixed and floating exchange rate which give chance to evaluate effects of regimes on the hypothesis. Second, we examine three different identification assumptions about the relationship and order of endogenous variables. Therefore, we compare the empirical suggestions with theory. Third, unlike previous studies focus only on real GDP we analyze impacts of real effective exchange rate on GDP components: consumption, investment, export, import. We find depreciations are contractionary in the short term but for the long term positive trade competitiveness dominates the negative balance sheet effect and depreciations are expansionary and permanent. Moreover, we find real depreciations are inflationary.