Investigation of relationship between housing prices and macroeconomic variables in Turkey

This research aims to examine the long-term and short-term relationships between housing prices and macroeconomic variables in Turkey. In the study, the effects of economic growth, inflation rate, unemployment rate, housing loan interest rates and nominal exchange rate indicators on housing prices were analyzed using quarterly data from 2010:Q1-2023:Q2. The relationships between the variables were determined by applying ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag), one of the time series analysis methods. According to the research findings, economic growth and exchange rate variables were found to have positive and significant effects on housing prices. It was observed that the interest rate affected housing prices negatively. The effects of inflation and unemployment rate were not found to be statistically significant. The error correction model (ECM) used to examine short-term dynamics shows that the model can correct short-term imbalances in the long term. The research results reveal that the housing market is sensitive to macroeconomic variables and that economic growth, interest rate and exchange rate play an important role in determining housing prices. The findings suggest that policymakers and investors should carefully manage growth, interest rate and exchange rate policies to ensure housing market stability.