The impact of social factors on the transformation of perceptions toward different nationalities living as refugees or migrants in Turkey: An sentiment and stance analysis

The purpose of this study is to reveal how social perceptions towards different national identities living as refugees or migrants in Turkey have changed over time under the influence of a total of 16 social factors, including politics, economy, education, religion, security, and migration. Methodologically, the study uses a mixed research method (convergent parallel design) and is theoretically grounded in Social Identity Theory, Integrated Threat Theory, and the Stereotype Content Model. The research includes data obtained from social media between 2010 and 2022, which contains the terms "Iraqi," "Pakistani," "Iranian," "Afghan," and "Syrian," as well as the term "Armenian" to compare the impact of non-migration social factors. Sentiment analysis (VADER and BERTÜRK) and stance analysis based on thematic content analysis were applied to the data from the 352 analysis days identified. According to the findings of the study, perceptions of national identities were shaped most by the factors of migration, politics, and security. The year 2015, in particular, marked a critical threshold, as the Syrian population in Turkey exceeded 2.5 million, shifting perceptions from a narrative of "needy/poor" to one of "threat and economic burden." Furthermore, it was determined that the spread of negative perceptions towards Syrians also influenced perceptions of other migrant groups, shaping them around threats in economic, demographic, cultural, and social security contexts. Perceptions towards Armenians, on the other hand, were seen to reflect a persistent positioning as an outgroup, fueled by historical memory and current political developments. Although the factor of religion strengthens the perception of the in-group for some groups, it has been revealed that this effect does not completely eliminate the perception of threat. In summary, social perception is not a static labeling but rather a dynamic process that is constantly woven and unraveled through the interaction of social factors. The research reinterprets the breaking points in social perception through the metaphor of "Rope Culture," demonstrating how social media secures the sense of "shared destiny" and how it rebuilds the "we" consciousness as a defense reflex against perceived threats. In this respect, the research contributes methodologically to the literature of digital sociology and computational social sciences, while shedding data-driven light on the development of integration policies.