Turkey's foreign trade potential with the integrations it is connected to: ECO and BSEC example

Purpose of the research: This study aims to determine the factors affecting Turkey's exports to ECO and BSEC countries, among the economic integrations of which it is a member, and to analyze to what extent these exports can be explained by the gravity model. In this regard, a gravity model was applied using annual data covering the years 2013-2022 to explain Turkey's exports to ECO countries; For BSEC countries, the model was estimated with data covering the years 2013-2023. The gravity model, which is frequently used in foreign trade analyses, was preferred in this study to reveal the determinants of exports to ECO and BSEC countries. Importance of research: In this study, panel data analysis method was used to determine the economic, geographical and cultural factors affecting Turkey's exports to ECO (Economic Cooperation Organization) and BSEC (Black Sea Economic Cooperation) member countries.The basis of the research is the gravity model, which is frequently used to explain foreign trade flows. In the study, trade data between ECO countries between 2013-2022 and between BSEC countries and Türkiye between 2013-2023 were analyzed. In accordance with the nature of the data, fixed effects model (FEM) and random effects model (REM) were estimated. Hausman test was applied to choose between models. Additionally, the Breusch-Pagan / Cook-Weisberg test was performed to control heteroscedasticity in the model, and if heteroscedasticity was detected, models corrected with robust standard errors were used. Stata 14.0 and 17.0 statistical programs were used to analyze the data. Data Used: Dependent Variable: Turkey's export volume to ECO and BSEC member countries (log_export). Independent Variables: Economic size of partner countries (log_gsyih), Population (log_population), Geographic distance to Turkey (log_distance), Common boundary state (common_nerve), Common language factor (common_language). With this method, the effects of independent variables on exports were evaluated and policy recommendations were developed based on the results.