The interaction of international system and domestic politics in Türkiye's Iraq policy (1955–2003): A morphogenetic analysis

This study examines the interaction between the international system and domestic politics in Türkiye's Iraq policy employing the morphogenetic analysis method. The research combines the conceptual framework of neoclassical realism with the analytical tools of Margaret Archer's morphogenetic approach. The study has two main claims. First, structural transformations in the international system are significantly determinative of Türkiye's Iraq policy. Second, although international systemic stimuli compel Turkey to make decisions regarding Iraq, the outcome of foreign policy is shaped through interaction with internal factors such as leaders' perceptions of threats and opportunities, state capacity, security threats, strategic culture, and economic conditions. The study tests these claims through three historical cases: the Baghdad Pact (1955), the First Gulf War (1990-1991), and the US invasion of Iraq (2003). Each case corresponds to different systemic structures (bipolar, unipolar, new world order) and different leadership models (Menderes, Özal, Erdoğan). Analyzed using the morphogenetic cycle (T1-T2/T3-T4), these cases demonstrate how structural conditioning, social interaction, and structural elaboration determined Türkiye's policy toward Iraq. The original contribution of the research is its methodological adaptation of the morphogenetic approach to the discipline of international relations and to the field of Middle East Studies. In doing so, the study contributes to the literature both methodologically—by introducing a novel analytical perspective—and empirically, by providing a historical analysis of Türkiye's policy toward Iraq. The results reveal that the structural effects of the international system are decisive, but that this effect is filtered through domestic mechanisms.