Carbon footprint of the automotive sector in Turkey: Modeling future scenarios with sales data

This thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of the Turkish automotive sector's emission profile, brand performance, technological transformation, and policy implications over the 2021–2024 period using sales data from the Automotive Distributors & Mobility Association (ADMA). Unlike most existing studies, which rely on production or registration data, this research uniquely focuses on sales-based emission analysis, offering a more market-oriented perspective. The findings also provide practical insights for policymakers through data-driven recommendations concerning electric vehicle incentives, emission standards, charging infrastructure, consumer awareness programs, and EU harmonization efforts. The study evaluates emissions from 919,156 vehicle sales, calculating weighted average CO₂ emissions to identify temporal and categorical trends. The distribution of vehicles across emission ranges (0–120, 121–150, 151–180, 181–200, and 200+ g/km) is examined to reveal the market's environmental orientation. Seasonal variations, monthly fluctuations, and annual growth rates are also assessed to illustrate the evolution of emission dynamics. This comprehensive approach not only highlights the current emission landscape of Türkiye's automotive market but also establishes a foundation for future assessments. Furthermore, the analysis identifies which brands are adopting cleaner technologies, their progress levels, and the emission reduction strategies of market leaders. Finally, four projection scenarios for 2025–2035 were developed, enabling the evaluation of Türkiye's potential to meet its emission reduction goals and to compare the expected impacts of alternative policy pathways.