Economic development level and voting behavior : A comparative empirical analysis for Turkey and selected countries

Examination of voter's behavior is critical for politicians to understand the expectations of voters. The elections which are held at regular intervals and quite costly can provide their expected benefits if the voters have the opportunity to reflect their requests or dissatisfaction to the elected bodies properly. Voting behavior is affected by many factors. This dissertation examines the economic factors by using the regional data for the local elections held in 2004, 2009 and 2014 together with the parliamentary elections of 2007 and 2011. According to the results, Turkish voters evaluate the incumbent party according to its macroeconomic performance and the consequences of this evaluation is reflected to the vote shares of the incumbents within reward – punishment framework. But the reflections of these evaluations could not be measured on opposition parties. On the other hand, the punishment of the incumbent for the bad macroeconomic performance depends on two conditions. First, voters must keep the incumbent party responsible for the macroeconomic instability. Second, there must be viable and politically credible alternatives other than the incumbent to which voters can transfer their votes. Additionally, for the voters to shape their decisions according to economic voting hypothesis, they must be able to interpret the macroeconomic conditions correctly. This dissertation also examines the parliamentary elections in the member states of the European Union and the candidate countries for the period between 1990 and 2014. The results for the analyses conducted with macroeconomic variables are in line with economic voting hypothesis.