Predicting of health expenditures covered by social security institution for various unemployment scenarios in Turkey: A simulative study

Steadily growing demand related to health services' quantity and quality has been observed in globe. This demand resulted a financial burden to all countries' social security systems to provide necessary health services sufficiently. Dealing with this increasing healthcare demands forced countries to glance at social security institutes' health expenditures. To provide control on this expenditures, policy makers need financial forecasting reports of healthcare demands. According to literature income is placed as main factor among crucial factors what affects people's behaviour in market. In this economical perspective, thinking income and unemployment issues as main factors which affect household behaviours may will be rational and scientific. In this study, for different unemployment levels of Turkey's made a prediction for Turkish Social Security Institution's health expenditure levels for 2016-2025 years through factors may affect income level. In study, Unemployment was assumed as effective factor to shape households behavior. In results, it is detected that unemployment level has slightly positive way effect on health expenditure of Social Security Institution of Turkey. Results show that unepmloyment increase health expenditures via utilization policies from health services and health externalities. High unemployment level brings together high health expenditure of Social Security Institution. It is thought that if an unemployment level is getting higher, in families' income level is getting decreased and socio-economic conditions can be worse. Also, unemployment accelerate poverty in public and probably this phonemenon effect individuals health. It is thought that struggling with unemployment may make contribution to health levels because unemployment potentially can affect individuals health and health needs in negative way.