Understanding the emergence and transformations of the Gulf Regional Security Complex (1971-2003)

This study is an attempt to understand and contextualize the transformations of the Gulf security complex from its emergence in 1971 to 2003. By presenting an analysis of the regional security in the Gulf from the perspective of the Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT), the study provides a comprehensive framework that defines the dynamic relationships between different security sectors. In this context, the study tackles the research question of how the "Gulf Security Complex" emerged and transformed from 1971 to 2003. The main purpose of the study is to reveal the causal mechanism that explains the security policies in the Gulf region. The analysis starts with the British withdrawal from the region in 1971 and ends with the occupation of one of the regional poles in 2003. The study, which deals with the security policies that took place in the region during this period, is divided into three periods, namely: the period when cooperation norms dominate (1970-1980), the period of conflict (1980-1991), and the period when the status quo (1991-2003) is dominant. In the study, in which theory application is used methodologically, case study and process tracing methods from qualitative research approaches are applied. The study considers material and ideational factors as independent variables and concludes that regional security outcomes can be understood at the meeting point of these two factors. While acknowledging the impact of global actors on regional security, the study reveals that regional security is shaped by actors in the region, and therefore, the level of regional analysis is dominant in explaining the security complex of the region. Nevertheless, while also considering the influence of societal, economic, and environmental security sectors on regional security outcomes, it concludes that military and political security sectors play a dominant role in shaping regional security.