Master'sOpen Access

Structural break unit root test and application on unemployment hysteria

2015
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Advisor: Yrd. Doç. Dr. Fatma Zeren

Abstract (EN)

Time series is a series of measurements observed over time; who practices in all branches of science, a field of application of statistics and econometrics sometimes. Considering the characteristics of the series and knowing the characteristics of the series in econometric models based on time series data is required. In particular, it is important to investigate the stationarity properties of the series. If a time series is non-stationarity. t, F, ki-kare tests and similar statistical studies it becomes suspicious. Stationarity is that a series in the time which average, variance to be constant, and covariance to be independent of time. In addition to when the series is non-stationarity. The forward estimates would deviant. About the non-stationarity variables established regression relationship is spurious. Because a time series which contain trend and breaks, the time series occur non-stationarity series. For that reason stationarity is so important to analyze time series. In this study, the unit root tests that to test the stationarity, has been introduced. The tests commonly used to test the stability in the literature is divided into two groups. Tests of the first group are tests that don't take into account the structural break in the series. These tests are Dickey Fuller (DF) unit root test, Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Phillips - Perron unit root test and KPSS unit root test. Other tests are tests that take into account the structural break in the series. These tests are Perron structural break unit root test, Zivot-Andrews unit root test, Lumpsdaine-Papell unit root test, Lee-Strazicich unit root test, Kapetanios unit root test and Carrion-i-Silvestre unit root test. Unemployment hysteria hypothesis with this test has been tested in application work . It was concluded that between 1923-2014 unemployment hysteria in Turkey.

Author

Dr. Mustafa Gökçe

How to Cite

Mustafa Gökçe (Master Thesis). Structural break unit root test and application on unemployment hysteria, 2015, İnönü University.

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