Assessment of the social resilience of provinces likely to be affected by earthquake originating from Yedisu fault

This study comparatively evaluates the social resilience levels of ten provinces (Batman, Bayburt, Bingöl, Diyarbakır, Elazığ, Erzincan, Erzurum, Gümüşhane, Muş, and Tunceli) that are potentially affected by a possible earthquake originating from the Yedisu Fault, using multi-criteria decision-making techniques. Indicators covering socio-demographic, economic, participation, security, and health dimensions were employed; their objective weights were determined using the CRITIC method, and the relative resilience rankings of the provinces were obtained through the TOPSIS method. To assess the sensitivity of the weighting scheme, CRITIC-based weights were compared with an equal-weight approach. The findings reveal that the sense of belonging/local attachment has the highest informational content, while vulnerability factors such as deprivation and age structure are also significant determinants of resilience. According to the CRITIC-based TOPSIS results, Erzurum ranks highest in resilience, whereas Batman ranks lowest. Under the equal-weight scenario, Bayburt ranks first, followed by Erzurum. The study provides a multidimensional resilience framework that extends beyond infrastructure, incorporating social capital, attachment, and poverty dynamics. It aims to directly support decision-making processes for prioritizing targeted social protection, disaster education, and local capacity-building programs in provinces with lower resilience performance.