Development of Upper Euphrates Basin hydroeconomic model and determination of climate change adaptation strategies

Climate change and global warming are among the most important issues of our time and the near future. The negative impacts of climate change can be minimized by using models that work with an integrated basin-based sustainable water management approach based on the relationship between water, energy and ecosystems. One of the appropriate model types that can be used for this is hydroeconomic optimization models. Basically, hydrological and economic data are used in hydroeconomic models. In this study, the Euphrates Basin Hydroeconomic Model (FEHEM), a hydroeconomic optimization model of the interconnected water supply infrastructure of the Upper Euphrates Basin, which is the largest and main basin providing water flow to the Euphrates River, is developed. Using a 45-year historical hydrological dataset, water management and hydropower decision-making operations were evaluated with the linear programming (LP) model at monthly time steps. In addition, the effects of climate change and global warming on hydrological data in the basin until 2116 were determined according to low and high emission climate scenarios. As a result, the amount of precipitation is expected to decrease and the timing of runoff is expected to change with climate change. The modeled reduction in current inputs is on average 37.5%. It is observed that peak flows will occur about 1-2 months earlier on average. As a result of these hydrological changes, the total amount of energy production in the basin will decrease in the near future, and so will hydroelectric revenue. Reservoir storage and hydropower decision-making should be reconsidered through integrated basin planning. Basin-based decision-making algorithms that work according to the time and magnitude of precipitation should be used. In this sense, hydroelectric power plants with large storage capacities are of strategic importance with their flexible operation capabilities. In the near future, models working with an integrated basin management approach are expected to be the most important decision makers in water management and planning studies