Complex interdependence between the European Union and Russia based on natural gas: From strong bonds to loose ties

This thesis focuses on the complex interdependence based on natural gas between the European Economic Community (EEC)/the European Union (EU) and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR)/the Russian Federation (RF) via complex interdependence theory. The thesis has two main arguments. First of all, the conditions of complex interdependence took place in Europe between the EEC countries and the USSR in spite of the Cold War and the ideological competition between the two sides, and natural gas trade played a key role in this. The complex interdependence continued until the early 2000s in spite of structural changes such as the end of the Cold War and transformation of EEC into the EU due to overlapping reliable energy source need and reliable supplier quest of the EEC and USSR's need to establish economic relations with Europe. Secondly, in spite of the efforts of both sides, the complex interdependence gradually loosened after 2000 and cut with the invasion of Ukraine by the RF on 24 February 2022 because of five main developments. These developments are as follows: (1) EU's change of natural gas trade system where free market conditions and competition prevail, (2) Russian Federation's not being a contracting party to the Energy Charter Treaty, a European initiative, (3) EU's failure to develop a common market or common foreign policy strategy for natural gas, (4) Former Eastern Bloc countries centered crises negatively affecting natural gas trade between the EU and the RF and (5) Increasing role of North American LNG in global gas trade and changing the natural gas purchase and sale contracts in Europe. This thesis attempts to examine how the conditions establishing interdependence between the two sides with an asymmetrical interdependence in the context of natural gas occurred and how the non-state actors and interaction channels in both sides played a role in this process in two main time slots. It also attempts to examine the changes in the complex interdependence together with the rationales. It analyzes the course of relations between the EU, a natural gas consumer on a global scale, and the RF, a natural gas producer on a global scale as well, on the basis of complex interdependence with a focus on natural gas and the entire conditions of complex interdependence during the Cold War and the post-Cold War era. This bond continued and further strengthened until 2000 without being affected from systemic and sub-systemic changes in both sides, which led to significant changes in other fields.