Indicator-based evaluation of the desertification trend in the Cankiri-Yaprakli Hazim Dağli Nature Park

Protected areas in arid and semiarid regions are particularly vulnerable to desertification, mainly due to climate change. This study quantitatively assesses the desertification risk of Hazım Dağlı Nature Park, located in the Yapraklı district of Çankırı province, using the indicator-based DIS4ME system. Soil samples were collected at a depth of 0–30 cm, and desertification survey forms were completed in accordance with the DIS4ME protocol. Subsequently, laboratory analyses were conducted to evaluate the risk of desertification. Soil analyses showed that the clay content ranged from 23.40% to 61.60% (average 41.47%), the lime (CaCO₃) content ranged from 2.92% to 39.43% (average 21.27%), and pH values varied from 6.90 to 7.76 (average 7.26), indicating a generally neutral to slightly alkaline reaction. Total organic matter ranged from 0.15% to 14.24% (average 2.80%), and total nitrogen ranged from 0.01% to 0.71% (average 0.14%). Both parameters exhibited low to moderate levels and considerable spatial variability. Electrical conductivity values were mostly below critical salinity thresholds, ranging from 0.17 to 2.15 dS m⁻¹ (average 1.31 dS m⁻¹). However, some locations approached the upper limit, indicating a potential increase in salinity risk. These characteristics contribute to the area's susceptibility to erosion and related desertification processes, particularly in sloped regions with sparse vegetation. Desertification risk (DR) values ranged from 0.49 to 3.73, with an average of 2.20, indicating a moderate risk pattern across the area. The Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) ranged from 1.34 to 1.50, with an average of 1.41, signifying considerable vulnerability to desertification, with only a few areas classified as very low risk. The findings indicate that Hazım Dağlı Nature Park is not characterised by uniformly low risk or severe degradation. However, the area could transition from vulnerable to critical status if current land-use and management practices are not improved. Key recommendations include implementing erosion-control measures in forest and pasture areas, adjusting grazing pressure to align with carrying capacity, and minimising soil compaction from recreational activities. This study serves as a valuable decision-support tool for identifying and prioritising sensitive areas in future park management planning.