Assessment of the impacts of earthquakes on urban ecosystem servi̇ces: The case of Düzce

Although earthquakes are generally evaluated in terms of destroyed buildings and human casualties, the most lasting pressures on ecosystems stem from post-disaster spatial planning decisions that disregard natural processes. The pre- (1990) and post-earthquake periods (2000, 2012, 2021) of the Düzce Central–Kaynaşlı region, affected by the November 12, 1999 earthquake, were analyzed; spatial decisions, CORINE land cover changes, and ecosystem service supply–demand–balance relationships were assessed across provisioning, regulating, and cultural dimensions. The findings show that the strong ecosystem balance before 1990 was disrupted between 1990 and 2000, experienced the heaviest breakdown between 2000 and 2012, and exhibited partial recovery between 2012 and 2021. In provisioning services, the supply decreased by 25% due to a 17% loss of agricultural land and a 67% loss of pastures, while demand increased by 22% due to population growth and urbanization. In regulating services, the loss of 56% of wetlands and 9% of forests reduced supply by 30%, while demand rose by 20%, increasing disaster risk. In cultural services, prefabricated housing and debris deposits after 1999 weakened the natural landscape; however, projects such as Melensu Park and the Millet Garden after 2012 increased urban green areas by 500%, raised supply by 30%, and increased demand by 15%, resulting in partial balance improvement. Consequently, the main hypothesis of the thesis is confirmed: the most destructive and lasting effects on ecosystem services originate not from the earthquake itself but from post-earthquake spatial planning decisions. Therefore, integrating ecosystem service maps into post-disaster spatial planning, prioritizing nature-based solutions, and protecting agricultural and pasture lands are critical. This study provides insights not only for Düzce but also universally for all cities at earthquake risk.