Analysis of the impact of digital transformation on economic growth: The case of Türkiye

With the impact of rapid advances in the field of communication and technology, it has become a necessity for countries to keep up with these developments. In this process, it is very important to determine what the macroeconomic effects of digital transformation technologies will be. In this study, the dependent variable GDP (USD), which is thought to be the determinant of the impact of digital transformation on economic growth for Türkiye between 2008-2023, and the independent variables ICT service exports (USD), fixed broadband package prices (USD), mobile cellular low usage packages (USD), high technology exports (USD) were used. While conducting the literature review, the keyword "digital transformation economic growth" was written to the Web of Science database, and VOSviewer, a data analysis software that allows researchers to create scientific maps used to analyze and examine bibliometric analysis, data visualization, and academic citation relationships, was used. In addition, the Python programming language, which is widely used in data science and machine learning (ML), was used in the economic analysis of variables and predictions. ADF, PP, KPSS, Zivot Andrews Unit Root Tests, ARDL Bounds Test, Impulse Response Analysis, ARIMA, SARIMA Model, Linear Regression Python Modeling were performed with the Python Programming language. According to the results, it is observed that the increase in information and communication technology service exports (ICTE) has a positive effect on economic growth. This shows that technological progress is not an external factor in the economy, but an internal factor that encourages growth. It also reveals that the increase in high-technology exports (e.g. electronic products and software) makes a significant contribution to economic growth. This situation confirms the effect of the information economy and R&D investments on long-term growth. The results obtained can be associated with Schumpeter's concept of "creative destruction". According to the theory, innovation and technological change are the main sources of economic growth. It is stated that new technologies eliminate old systems and create more efficient economic structures. The growth of the ICT sector in Turkey has emerged as a fundamental part of economic transformation. The integration of new technologies into exports has supported economic growth by increasing competitiveness. The addition of random noise and fluctuations to economic estimates in the analysis has provided the opportunity to evaluate the effect of external shocks on growth. The effects of such uncertainties support Schumpeter's perspective on economic fluctuations. In addition, according to the Neo-Classical Growth Theory and the relationship of Diminishing Returns, it argues that growth can be sustained with capital accumulation, but the growth rate will decrease over time due to the effect of decreasing marginal returns. This theory suggests that technological development has an external effect on growth. This study attempts to present a roadmap to national economies on how to realize digital transformation, which is seen as the vision of the future. It is aimed to determine the level of macroeconomic effects that will occur with this transformation. The results obtained from the analyses conducted in the study aim to shed light on studies in this field by predicting how the Turkish economy will be affected by digital transformation determinants and how it will affect economic growth.