GIS based landslide hazard assessment of the Erdemli (Mersin) region

In this study multi-temporal landslide inventory maps were prepared by interpretation of aerial photographs taken in different time intervals in Şahna river watershed. In order to determine the spatial probability of landslide occurrence, susceptibility maps were prepared by using logistic regression method. Temporal probability of landslides was determined by considering the triggering factors as rainfall ? frequency relationships. The exceedance probability of landslides occurrence in 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years time intervals were calculated. The probabilities of landslide size (extent) were obtained from frequency ? size distribution of 1969 event landslide inventory. Probability density function in convenience with frequency distribution was achieved by three parameter inverse gamma distribution. By integration of the gamma distribution, the probability of landslide against the landslide size was determined. Finally, landslide hazard maps for different landslide sizes (0.1 km2, 0.05 km2 and 0.01 km2), that will occur having exceedance probabilities for 5, 10, 25, 50 ve 100 years periods were obtained. Landslide hazard maps constitutes important stage for the landslide risk assessment procedure, so the hazard maps produced in this study will provide a basis for the landslide risk-management studies of the region.