Scenario development for possible CBRNE incidents with the method of general morphological analysis: Sample chemical incidents scenarios

Risk management studies must be carried out effectively in order to prevent injuries, loss of life, environmental damage, heavy economic and social losses that may be caused by CBRNE incidents, which are likely to occur more frequently and violently today, and to ensure a rapid and accurate response to such incidents. Scenarios to be developed specifically for possible CBRNE incidents within the scope of risk management studies will enable the prediction of unpredictable possibilities that may occur in the future, taking the necessary precautions and being prepared for a rapid and effective response to such incidents. Developing these scenarios systematically and within a method, which has a great role in being prepared for possible CBRNE incidents in every aspect, will enable the creation of a reality model and their more effective use. General Morphological Analysis (GMA) is a structured method used to develop appropriate and coherent scenarios that enable creative analysis. In this context, within the scope of the thesis study, it was aimed to create two different morphological models related to chemical incidents in line with the procedures of the GMA method and to develop four different sample chemical incident scenarios through these morphological models. Scenarios to be included in risk reduction plans can be developed in a more effective and realistic way through morphological models created with the GMA method. The use of these morphological models and the scenarios developed through the models in training and exercises will ensure that response teams are truly prepared to respond to possible CBRNE incidents. At this point, it is possible that they will provide great general benefit to risk management studies carried out on a national and international scale.