National income with export-based growth and the dependence of exports on imports: The case of Turkey

The strategy of all countries is to ensure stable growth. While there are areas that will affect the growth engine of the economic system, there are also areas that will cause problems for it in the long turn. In addition, the world system has become the only standard in terms of its sphere of influence with globalization. Being a part of the world, Turkey changed its growth model in 1980 and adopted the Export-Based Growth Strategy. The Turkish economy, which is trying to get a share of the world market, has undergone changes, even if it is done within the scope of this strategy. Our study examines the causal relationship between Turkey's gross domestic product and the effect of exports on imports between 1980 and 2020. While the dependent variable is Turkey's imports, our independent variables are Turkey's gross domestic products and exports. The regression model was estimated by analyzing the time series, testing the stationarity, and the application of the VAR Granger causality test. Our experimental results have shown that Turkey's gross domestic products and exports have a positive effect on imports in the long turn because they are the cause of imports. According to these findings, we have concluded that Turkey should especially encourage the sectors whose entire production chain can be realized domestically, and in general, the sectors that constitute a large proportion in terms of import share.