The impact of climate change on the agricultural sector in mediterranean countries

The aim of this study is to analyze the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector in the Mediterranean countries, with a focus on Egypt, Türkiye, Spain, Italy and Greece. These countries are among the most important producers of major crops. Climate change is a growing challenge for these countries, posing a real threat to agricultural production. The research is based on past climate and agricultural data from 1980 to 2024 as a basis for future projections, as well as on the use of inductive models such as the ARIMA model and the ARIMAX model to predict the impact of climate change on past production in the period from 2025 to 2030. The research aims to clarify the relationship between climate change and agriculture in the Mediterranean region and to identify the most influential climate factors on agricultural production. The study examined the impact of temperature and precipitation variables on wheat production through the application of ARDL cointegration analysis. The study shows the importance of adapting to the expected climate changes through some strategies such as the improvement of irrigation systems, the development of drought-resistant crops and the promotion of agricultural practices that adapt to the negative effects of climate change on agriculture in order to maintain agricultural production in Mediterranean countries. Keywords: Climate change, Agriculture, Mediterranean, Food security, ARIMA model, ARIMAX model, ARDL, Agricultural Adaptation, Climate Forecasting.