Karaagac's (Ulmus Glabra Huds.) modeling structural interchange according to different climate change scenarios

Objective: The aim of this study was to focus on the changes in the ecological connectivity of the European and Western Asian native distribution of the wych elm (Ulmus glabra Huds.), which is valuable in terms of providing biological diversity and carbon sequestration among ecosystems due to biotic, abiotic, and anthropogenic factors. It has been acknowledged that climate plays a decisive role in this process, and it is known that biological responses to climate change generally lead to habitat fragmentation. The effects of climate change on species can affect the delicate balance in ecosystems. Therefore, conservation planning needs to consider the adaptability to climate change and associated ecological processes. In this study, the following questions were addressed: 1. What is the potential geographic distribution of U. glabra under different climate change scenarios in the present and future? 2. How will the change in ecological connectivity between current and future potential habitats of U. glabra occur under different climate scenarios? The findings of this study provided detailed information for the sustainable future and conservation of U. glabra in Türkiye and contributed to the identification of robust strategies. The discussion also explored how this information could serve as a framework for translating theory into practice in terms of managing forest species at the landscape scale and planning protected areas. Material and Methods: The main material of the study consisted of the wych elm (Ulmus glabra Huds.), an economically and ecologically valuable forest tree species. The data were refined to a resolution of 5 km to prevent spatial autocorrelation and to evaluate them at the same scale as bioclimatic variables. A total of 402 occurrence records were used in the xiv modeling phase. As part of the study objective, changes in spatial units connecting the potential and future distributions of the species were evaluated using ecological niche modeling, morphological spatial pattern analysis, and the PC index (Probability of Connectivity). Results: According to future projections of U. glabra distribution, it is expected that there will be positive (gain), neutral, and negative (loss) changes depending on different time frames under various scenarios. It is estimated that habitat integrity and ecological connectivity of the species will continuously decrease. Habitat suitability for the species is expected to decrease in the future under different scenarios. Conclusion: In this study, the habitat suitability of U. glabra in Turkey was modeled with different climate scenarios, and it was determined that the species is sensitive to climate change. The most significant changes are expected to occur between 2061 and 2100 under all climate scenarios. The findings suggest that the distribution of the species will persist particularly along the Black Sea coast in the northern part of Turkey.