Lojistik altyapısının ticaret gelişimindeki rolü: Türkiye için bir uygulama

Over the past two decades, Turkey has undertaken considerable investment in transport infrastructure to found a well-developed transport network and to get integrated into global supply chains. This study aims to evaluate trade expansion benefits of transport network investment in Turkey to get insights on transport and industrial policy dimensions. As a research strategy, an inductive content analysis integrated with a systematic literature review approach is performed for the empirical studies on the broader economic benefits of transport infrastructure to derive guidance for the quantitative analysis of the subsequent research phase. The quantitative methods consists of two separate analysis. Firstly, short-run and long-run dynamics between land transportation infrastructure, ICT development and trade expansion are investigated within ARDL framework as a preliminary causality analysis. Then, gravity models of trade are estimated for exports and imports with infrastructure investments in various transport modes as the main explanatory variables as well as other independent variables involving factors of bilateral trade flow, ICT development, control variables for Turkey and control variables for partner countries. A main inference from the analysis entails that transport infrastructure investment acts as a driver for import growth rather than export expansion. As another important insight, transport infrastructure investment should be carried out with all transport types considered, based on a long-term transport policy scheme with special attention on road and rail infrastructure. Moreover, transport modes should be integrated to enhance network and connectivity of the overall logistics system, enabling prevalent practice of multimodal and intermodal transportation.