The effect of macroeconomic factors on the detection value of the firm: An applicaton in Istanbul Stock Exchange

The aim of this study is to examine the effect of macroeconomic factors on firm value determination. In this context, after explaining valuation concept, firm value determination process, and generally accepted valuation methods used in valuation, the relationship between macroeconomic factors and firm's stock is examined and a sample application is made for firm value determination. Firstly, macroeconomic factors such as national income, inflation, interest rate, money supply, exchange rate, employment level and oil price effects on firm's stock prices have been researched a firm traded on the Istanbul Stock Exchange is selected and wtih the data including the period 2006: 01 - 2016: 06 by simple correlation and multiple regression analysis. Secondly, firm values is determined according to years by using the Price / Earning Ratio method which is one of Market Value Approach in the company valuation methods. Market Value Approach due to the price comparison creating opportunities for firms in exchange methods, this approach provides a comparison of companies in industry or the same sector arm. For the investors, the price / profit ratio method is preferred because the data can be easily analyzed and the results can be obtained in a shorter time. As a result of the study, it is concluded that the firm's stock prices are positively correlated with national income, exchange rate, money supply and employment, while there is a negative correlation between inflation, interest rate and oil prices. Relative importance of factors; exchange rate, money supply, employment, national income, oil prices, interest rate and finally inflation. National income and money supply are more significant than exchange rate, interest rate, oil prices, employment and inflation on the impact of firm's stock prices. In addition to the macroeconomic factors according to the Price / Earnings Ratio method, the financial statements of the firm have been observed to show a negative development in 2008 compared to the other years. Therefore, it should consider these macro factors in determining the value of the firm to make future investments more profitable based on the general situation of the country and macroeconomics in this study for the investor who wants to invest. While the firm's balance and income statement data and past financial statements are helpful in valuation, it is also possible to estimate the firm's value of the next year, so the firm's value method needs to be selected well.