The effect of macroeconomic fragility on economic growth: Augmented ARDL method

Countries have been exposed to external shocks in the global world. This situation causes a significant hindrance to sustainable economic growth. Countries have taken action against economic fragility which want to expose the minimum impact of those shocks. Thanks to this, their economy has gained resistance. The mentioned processes are raised to place the content of economic fragility in the current literature. Turkey is a developing country with severe, fragile conditions in terms of macroeconomics. This condition leads to Turkey's economy into a crisis cycle. One of the best ways to illustrate the macroeconomic fragility impact on the Turkish economy is to investigate the relationship between fragility and economic growth. This research, it is analysed the causal relationship between macroeconomic fragility and economic growth in Turkey between 1974 and 2020. The macroeconomic fragility index is created regarding six fragility indicators published by IMF. This index is used as an independent variable in econometric analyses. Economic growth is the dependent variable in this research. It is identified that there is a negative relationship between macroeconomic fragility and economic growth in this model, which utilised the ARDL boundary test.