Makroekonomik politikanın etkileşimin & makro ihtiyatlı ve parasal politika koordinasyonunun finansal istikrarının üzerindeki etkileri: Türkiye'den bir örnek

This study investigates the financial conditions' responses to both monetary and fiscal policy interaction, employing Vector Error Correction (VEC) model on the one hand, and macro-prudential and monetary policy coordination, adopting ARDL method on the other hand. Both long and short relationships between financial variables and policies were analyzed, using monthly data covers the period of 2010:01-2017:09 in Turkey. The study was divided to two parts, the first part examined the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy cooperation on stock prices and bond yields while the second part investigated the role of macro-prudential and monetary interaction in real credit and housing prices. According to first part, the main findings showed that in the long run, only fiscal policy had a significant relationship with financial assets, however the symmetry of the financial markets response to fiscal policy was not homogenous. Moreover, in terms of the short run, the impact of monetary and fiscal policy coordination was appeared to be insignificant in which it indicated that the interdependence between policies is not enough efficient to affect stock prices, while the joint impact of monetary and fiscal policy on bond yields was significant at 10% level, but it was less effective than impact of each policy alone. The main result of the second part found that the impact of monetary and macro-prudential policy coordination on real credit made no significant difference from the effect of each single policy, only the impact of monetary policy was statistically significant, and it affected real credit negatively in the long run whereas macro-prudential tools responded positively in the short run. Furthermore, the joint impact of both policies on housing price index was not effective significantly which explains the reason behind the soaring prices in Turkey. Keywords: Policy Coordination, Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, Macro-prudential policy, financial conditions.