Estimation of stock pri̇ces wi̇th Monte Carlo si̇mulati̇on

In the financial markets there are some fluctuations during the day or at certain time intervals, and these fluctuations create a stress and risk effect on the investor. Investors who are small or large want to protect themselves from fluctuations due to uncertainty in the financial markets. In this case investors apply to risk management to minimize their risk as much as possible. Investors who will invest in an uncertainty environment should have ideas about the investment they will make in this market in order to invest their investment positively. It is not always possible for a person to make a rational decision in an uncertain environment. Crises or ups and downs in investment can cause pressure on the investor and lead to wrong decisions. Investors want to have information about their investment before investing in it, and they do not want to make a wrong decision because of psychological factors in the face of a possible negativity. In this study, an investment model based on purely rational data was developed to follow a rational approach on investors' investment. In this context, with the help of Monte Carlo method, simulation of Turkish Airlines and American Airlines stocks data was conducted, similar parts and divided points have been explained and it has been tried to determine which investment is more rational and profitable to invest. Keywords: Financial Markets, Uncertainty, Investment, Monte Carlo Simulation