Reflections of the Russia-Ukraine War on the Turkish economy

Natural disasters, terrorist incidents, political agenda, epidemics and wars affect the economy directly or indirectly. The war started on February 24, 2022, when Russia attacked Ukrainian territory. The war was caused by differences of opinion between Russia and Ukraine that have been going on for years. The start of the war and the fact that it lasted longer than expected disturbed the European Union and many countries, which saw Russia as a granary. With the beginning of the war, Turkey maintained its neutrality and carried out mediation activities, but some economic activities were negatively affected by the state of war in Turkey. In this study, the energy market, tourism sector and foreign trade relations were examined with data taken from sources such as World Bank (WB), Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Turkish Exporters' Assembly (TIM). At the end of the study, it was interpreted how the war affected the company's production and employment in the light of the data received from the company using the general-to-specific method. The plant selected in the study was chosen as an example because it has import and export activities with Russia and Ukraine. Especially in the trade between Türkiye and Russia, energy comes to the fore with the concept of mutual dependency. The main reason underlying this situation is that although Russia ranks first in Turkey's natural gas imports, Turkey plays a key role in the transfer process of natural gas exported from Russia, in addition to Russia's economy being dependent on energy exports. In this study, developments that may affect Turkey's energy strategies in the war between Ukraine and Russia are discussed. Another area affected by war and crisis periods is the tourism sector. The countries where Turkey attracts the most tourists are Russia and Ukraine. In this study, how the war between Russia and Ukraine affected the Turkish tourism sector was examined with data. At the same time, the study discussed the developments in Turkey's foreign trade relations with Russia and Ukraine. The Russia-Ukraine War has created a crisis from energy to food all over the world. In the study, the data before and after 2022, the year when the Russia-Ukraine War started, was evaluated and how it affected the general situation of the Turkish economy was evaluated within the framework of macroeconomic indicators. In the light of the evaluations, it has been concluded that the Turkish economy is foreign-dependent in energy, food, tourism and trade and therefore has a fragile structure that is open to fluctuations.