Determination of Weibull distribution parameters in wind potential estimation: A study example for Isparta region

The interest in renewable energy is increasing due to the reasons such as exhaustion of fossil energy sources and the harm to the environment. Wind energy stands out because of its advantages such as not harming the environment, being found almost everywhere in the world, and being endless. Before making a wind energy investment in a region, the wind characteristics of the region should be analyzed. The Weibull distribution is one of the probability distribution methods used in the analysis of wind characteristics. Various methods are used in the parameter calculation of the distribution. The success of the distribution largely depends on the success of the parameter estimation. In this study, wind energy characteristics of Isparta region were studied. The required wind energy was recorded hourly between October 2018 and October 2021. Weibull distribution was used to analyze the wind characteristics of the region. A total of seven methods, six numerical and one metaheuristic, were used to calculate parameters of the distribution. Justus empirical, moment, graph, energy pattern, energy trend and maximum likelihood methods are numerical methods. Manta-ray foraging optimization is a metaheuristic algorithm method. Success of the methods was evaluated using root mean square error, coefficient of determination, chi-square and mean absolute error methods. According to the analysis results, metaheuristic algorithm were successful compared to numerical methods. When numerical methods are compared among themselves, Justus empirical method was successfull. Also, the user interface has been designed. Thus, users are enabled to work on Weibull easily and quickly.