A scenario approch and an application in Turkey on insurance sector

This study has performed to determine, is it possible or not, or wich are the possible conditions to make foresighted estimations for insurance sector by applying scenario analysis to that sector.First of all, general descriptions and general definition of insurance have been given in the study content. Then, scenario concept, scenario approach and scenario analysis have been examined in detail and the way of strategic management has been evaluated in scenarios perspective. A detailed related literature scanning has been done for these descriptions, definitions, and evaluations, which are commonly depended on the literatures. In following part of the study; models developing have been done which may explain certain subtitles and may allow foresighted estimations, in insurance sector. Regression analysis has been used via SPSS 15.0 packed program for the model developing. The calculation of foresighted estimations have been done by applying double exponential smoothing method to the time series. In the last stage of the study, the developed models have been evaluated and the study has been completed with the ?conclusion and suggestions? part, in which the results of the study were discussed, and suitable suggestions were offered in the light of the observed data.Key Words : Scenario, Scenario Approach, Scenario Analysis.