Environmental Kuznets curve analysis within the scope of energy consumption in Türkiye

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon emissions in Türkiye and to test the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis using annual data for the period 1980-2024. The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis proposes that there is an inverted-U shaped relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation. According to this approach, economic activities initially increase environmental pollution; however, once a certain income level is exceeded, environmental pressures begin to decrease. Therefore, it is predicted that economic growth can contribute to the improvement of environmental quality in the long run. In the study, an econometric model, the Distributed Autoregressive Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, was adopted to identify long- and short-run relationships between the variables. In the analysis, carbon emissions (CO₂) were used as the dependent variable, while energy consumption (EC), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the square of GDP (GDP²) were used as the independent variables. The stationarity properties of the variables were examined using the Extended Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, and the research findings reveal a significant positive relationship between energy consumption and carbon emissions. According to the long-term estimation results, a 1% increase in energy consumption increases carbon emissions by 0.63%. On the other hand, the statistical insignificance of the economic growth variables indicates that the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis is not valid for Türkiye. It is observed that energy consumption increases emissions by 0.56% in the short term, while the other variables have no significant effect. The negative and significant error correction coefficient (-0.89) indicates that the model quickly returns to its long-term equilibrium. In light of these results, it is recommended that Türkiye prioritize energy efficiency policies and investments in renewable energy sources to achieve its environmental sustainability goals. Furthermore, the importance of implementing regulatory policies to control carbon emissions is highlighted.