Econometri̇c analysis of the tobacco market in Turkey

Tobacco is an industrial plant that should be evaluated comprehensively in the long term because of its importance in terms of its contribution to the country's economy and the problems in its production and marketing. The aim of this study is to reveal the current situation and change in cultivation area, production, yield and foreign trade of tobacco, which is an important industrial plant in Turkey, to examine the agricultural policies applied for tobacco production, to develop policy recommendations to increase tobacco exports and decrease imports. In the study, the change of the tobacco market is discussed between 1980 and 2020. Tobacco market is analyzed with partial equilibrium analysis and production, consumption and foreign trade data for the years 2020-2025 are estimated. Data used in the study and time series covering the years 1980-2020 were used. According to the results of the analysis, it is estimated that the amount of tobacco production will decrease to 59 thousand tons by 2025, while the amount of tobacco consumption will increase to 105 thousand tons and the amount of imports to 96 thousand tons. However, it was observed that there was no significant change in the amount of tobacco export. Tobacco is an important industrial product and is used not only in the manufacture of cigarettes, but also in the manufacture of many cosmetic products. In addition, tobacco is an important export product. For this reason, cultivation areas should be re-planned, taking into account the production estimates. While the current quota limitation is at 30%, production is below 20%. In order for the production to reach the rate in the quota limitation, input support such as diesel, fertilizer and pesticides should be given to the farmer and the supportive policies in contracted purchases should be expanded and encouraged. Keywords: Tobacco Production, Partial Equilibrium Analysis, Agricultural Policies