Analysis of the factors affecting the adaptation of possible drought insurance by wheat producers under dry conditions in Usak province

This study aims to determine the factors affecting the adaptation of possible drought insurance of wheat producers in Uşak Province, sources of risks in wheat production and the importance of drought risk in wheat production, the mitigation measures taken against risks and the importance of crop insurance among these strategies. The data used in the research is obtained through face to face survey from 75 wheat producing farms in 2013-2014 production period. Coefficient of variation and coefficient of random variation were used for measuring risk for important crops in the research area. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and logit model were used to determine factors affecting the adaptation of drought insurance. Variation measurements estimated for important crops grown in Uşak province showed that the yield fluctation is more severe for wheat and barley, but price and income fluctations are more severe for gram. Both ANN and logit model results have shown that knowledge about agricultural insurance and livestock farming had positive effect, while using credit had negative effect on farmers' probability of adapting drought insurance. ANN has high value of R2 (coefficient of determination) and low error rate (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) compared to the results of logit model.