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2008 küresel finansal krizi ve küresel kriz sonrası TCMB'nin uyguladığı makro ihtiyati politika araçları
2007 yılında ABD konut piyasasında subprime kredi borçlarının geri ödemelerinde başlayan sorunlar giderek büyümüş ve 2008 yılında finansal krize dönüşmüştür. Finansal kriz, reel sektöre sirayet ederek bir üretim krizine dönüşmüş, gelişmiş ekonomilerden gelişmekte olan ülkelere de sirayet ederek küresel bir boyut kazanmıştır. 2008 küresel finansal krizi, merkez bankalarına finansal sistemde biriken riskleri görmesi ve varlık fiyatlarındaki aşırı artışları göz önünde tutması gerektiğini öğretmiştir. İktisadi hayatın düzgün işlemesi için finansal istikrar vazgeçilmez unsur olup, finansal sistemde ortaya çıkacak herhangi bir istikrarsızlık reel ekonomiye yansıyacak ve dolayısıyla ekonominin genelinde önemli problemleri beraberinde getirecektir. Ülkeler kriz ekonomisinin yönetiminde ve istikrar politikalarının uygulanmasında konjonktürün gidişatına bağlı olarak farklı politika araçları ve farklı parasal aktarım kanalları merkez bankaları tarafından kullanılmıştır. Bu çalışmada, küresel kriz öncesinde, kriz sürecinde ve sonrasında Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) tarafından izlenen para politikası ve politika araçları kapsamlı olarak incelenmiştir. TCMB, 14 Nisan 2010 tarihinde açıkladığı krizden çıkış stratejisi çerçevesinde faiz koridoru ve zorunlu karşılıkların oldukça aktif olarak kullanıldığı bir para politikası tasarlayarak, rezerv opsiyonu mekanizması gibi yeni enstrümanları para politikası uygulaması olarak hayata geçirmiştir. Krizin 2008 yılında çıkmasına karşın, kriz öncesi Türkiye ekonomisi olumlu ekonomik göstergelere sahip olduğundan krizin olumsuz etkisi ülkemizde 2009 yılında hissedilmiştir. TCMB 2010 yılının sonlarından itibaren makro finansal riskleri de gözeten yeni bir para politikası çerçevesi uygulamaya koymuş ve Türkiye 2010 yılından itibaren küresel krizin etkilerinden sıyrılarak kalkınma sürecini yeniden başlatmıştır. Krizden çıkış sürecinde Türk bankacılık sektörünün fonlama kaynaklarına düşük maliyetle ulaşması, tüketici kredilerinde hızlı bir büyümeyi beraberinde getirmiştir. Tüketici kredilerindeki hızlı artış tasarrufları olumsuz etkilemiş ve cari açığın artmasına sebep olmuştur. TCMB, faiz koridoru uygulaması ve zorunlu karşılıklar kanalıyla bankaların fonlama maliyetlerini yukarı çekmiş ve hızlı kredi genişlemesini kontrol altına alarak cari açığı önlemeye çalışmıştır.
Enflasyon hedeflemesi ve sapmasının nedenleri
Enflasyon hedeflemesi, 1980'lerden sonra enflasyonla mücadele ve fiyat istikrarını sağlamaya yönelik olarak ortaya çıkmış özel bir para politikası rejimidir. İlk olarak uygulayan ve başarılı sonuç elde eden ülke Yeni Zelanda olup; sonrasında, ülkemizde diğer birçok ülke tarafından da başarı ile uygulanmıştır. Ülkemizde enflasyon hedeflemesi, 2001 yılında yaşanan ekonomik kriz sonrasında sabit döviz kuru sistemine dayalı para politikasının terk edilmesi sonrası, 2002 ve 2006 yılları arasında Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası(TCMB)tarafından örtük enflasyon hedeflemesi olarak uygulanmaya başlanmıştır. 2006 yılının başından itibaren, geçmiş dört yıllık örtük enflasyon uygulamalarında gerekli ön şartlar da sağlanarak enflasyon hedeflemesi uygulamasına resmen başlanmıştır. Enflasyon hedeflemesi politikasına göre, para otoriteleri para ile ilgili politikalarını önceden belirlenen orta vadeli sayısal bir enflasyon hedefine ulaşmak için yürütmelidirler. En önemli bileşenleri şeffaflık ve hesap verebilirliktir. Bu çalışmada, enflasyon hedeflemesi rejiminin temel unsurları ele alınmış olup, ülkemizde uygulanabilirliği ve karşılaşılan sorunlar açıklanmaya çalışılmıştır.
İslam dininin ekonomik prensipleri ışığında 1929 ekonomik buhranının ve 2008 küresel krizinin değerlendirilmesi
1929 Ekonomik Buhranı ile 2008 Küresel Krizi son bir asırda gerçekleşen en büyük ekonomik krizlerdir. Bu iki kriz de ABD kaynaklı olarak başlamış; sonra Avrupa ülkeleri başta olmak üzere bütün dünya ülkelerinin ekonomilerini ciddi şekilde etkilemiştir. Her iki kriz de kapitalizmin uygulandığı coğrafyalarda doğmuş, finansal piyasalarda başlayarak reel sektöre ciddi tahribatlar yapmıştır. Bu çalışmada yaşanan krizleri oluşturan sebepler İslam'ın Ekonomik Prensipleri ışığında incelenmiş ve bu prensiplerin uygulanması durumunda krizlere etkileri araştırılmıştır.
Sukuk instrument in Islamic finance
In Islam there are ethical principles in every aspect of life including finance. Therefore, Sukuk Instrument as part of Islamic finance is explored from the perspective of these principles, and potential of sukuk as an alternative financing instrument and its benefits to society are analyzed. In doing so, firstly the principles of Islamic Economics are mentioned to draw the general framework of Islamic Finance. Then, ideal sukuk instruments are elaborated according to objectives of Islamic law. Moreover, sukuk types that are designed to finance socio-economic development like socially responsible investments sukuk and waqf-sukuk are explained. Then current sukuk instrument is criticized according to Islamic law and International Financial Standards. In the last part of thesis, policy recommendations as an outcome of this research are presented to develop sukuk further as an alternative financing instrument.
Orta gelir tuzağından çıkış için kullanılan yöntemlerden AR-GE ve sanayi üretimi üzerine değerlendirme: Türkiye örneği
Orta gelir tuzağı, Dünya Bankasının açıklamış olduğu üzere ülkelerin, kişi başına düşen milli gelir seviyesi olan 1.026$ – 12.745$ aralığında uzun yıllar boyunca takılı kalması sonucu bir üst gelir grubuna çıkamamasını olarak tanımlanmaktadır. Türkiye'de 2004 orta gelir grubuna çıkmış ve söz konusu dönemde başarılı ekonomi politikaları sergilemiştir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'nin günümüzde orta gelir tuzağında yer alıp almadığı konusu çalışılmıştır. Ayrıca; ülkelerin gelir seviyelerini arttırmak için kullandığı araştırma ve geliştirmeye yapılan yatırım harcamalarının ve sanayi üretimi faaliyetlerinin Türkiye ekonomisi üzerinde nasıl etkiye sahip olduğu ekonomik modelleme yöntemleri ile test edilmiştir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Orta Gelir Tuzağı, Araştırma ve Geliştirme yatırım harcamaları, Sanayi Üretimi.
Kurumsallaşma, aile şirketlerinin kurumsallaşması ve ekonomik büyüme
Bu çalışmayla kurumsallaşma ve kurumsal yapının (Aile Şirketlerinin) ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi, bu etkinin kurumsallaşmanın hangi araçları ile ve nasıl oluştuğunu ortaya koymak amaçlanmıştır. Kurumlar ve kurumsallaşmış aile şirketleri, farklı yollarla ekonomik performans üstünde değişik etkilere sahiptir. Bunların birincisi kurumların belirsizliği azaltıp günlük yaşamı bir sistem haline dönüştürmesidir. Bunun dışında kurumlar, belirsizliği azaltarak işlem maliyeti üstünde etkili olup ekonomik çalışmaların üretken sahalara yöneltilmesini sağlamaktadır. İkinci önemli nokta ise siyasi sistemlerin, devletin piyasaya müdahalesinin ve mülkiyet haklarının korunması gibi kurumsallaşma araçlarını ekonomik performans üzerindeki etkisidir. Bununla birlikte kurumsallaşmanın niteliği ve kurumsallaşmış aile şirketleri dünya çapında farklılık arz etmektedir. Bu farklılıklar ise ülkelerin neden farklı büyüme performanslarına etkide bulunduğunu açıklamaktadır.
İslami finansal okuryazarlık: Vergi müfettişleri üzerine bir araştırma
Kişinin yaşamını planlamak, tercihlerini elde etmek ve gerektiğinde bu süreçte istediği an istediği müdahaleyi yapabilmesi günümüz kapitalist düzeninde çoğunlukla "para" ile mümkün kılınabilmektedir. Parayı elde etme, koruma ve daha da artırma çabası ise sağlam bir finans yönetimi gerektirmektedir. Söz konusu finans yönetiminin başarısı ise finansal okuryazarlık kavramı ile doğru orantılı ve güçlü bir ilişki içerisindedir. Tam bu noktada küresel ekonominin benimsediği ve İslam dinince yasak olan bazı finansal enstrümanların İslam dinine uyarlanması ve bu husustaki finansal kararların dinin gerektirdiği inanç ve değerlere zıt düşmemesi İslami finans kavramını ve önemini ortaya çıkarmıştır. İslami finans kavramını anlamak, günlük hayata ve İslami değerlere uygunluğunun farkındalığı ile alınacak finansal kararlara uygulayabilmek ise İslami finansal okuryazarlık düzeyinin geliştirilmesiyle mümkün olacaktır. Bu çalışmada ulusal ve uluslararası ölçekte önemi artan İslami finansal okuryazarlık düzeyi ve özelinde İslami finans ürünlerinin ne kadar bilinir olduğu, ekonomik aktörlerden biri olan Vergi Müfettişleri için ölçülmeye çalışılmıştır. Türkiye'de görev yapan 289 Vergi Müfettişine "Google Forms" ile hazırladığımız anket ulaştırılmıştır. Bu anket çalışmasının sonuçlarından elde edilen veriler de SPSS programı ile analiz edilmiştir. Yapılan analiz sonucunda İslami finans ürünlerine ilişkin bilgi düzeyinin cinsiyet, öğrenim durumu ve unvana göre anlamlı bir farklılık gösterebildiği görülmüştür. Demografik değişkenlere göre en yüksek farklılık gösteren ürünlerin Müşareke ve Müdarebe olduğu; Sukuk, Riba ve Murabaha ürünlerine ait bilgi düzeyinin ise hiçbir demografik değişkene göre farklılık göstermediği görülmüştür. Ayrıca çalışma bölgesi değişkenine göre bilgi düzeyinin farklılık göstermediği görülmüştür. Sonuç olarak vergi müfettişlerinin İslami finansal okuryazarlık düzeyinin düşük olduğu tespit edilmiştir.
Finansal krizlerde erken uyarı sistemi: Türkiye örneği
Finansal krizler sadece yerel değil küresel bakımdan da büyük iktisadi sorunlara yol açmıştır. Bu sebeple küresel çapta değişikliklere neden olan toplantılar gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu tezde özellikle Bretton Woods toplantısı öncesi ve sonrası krizlere yer verilmiştir. Akabinde ünlü ekonomist Paul Robin Krugman'ın modelleri hakkında bilgi verilmiştir. Çalışmamızın da ana felsefesi olan erken uyarı sistemleri üzerine hem metodolojik olarak hem de konu bakımından araştırma yapılmıştır. Daha sonra Türkiye örneği için yapılmış çalışmalar kontrol edilerek gerekli veri seti oluşturulmuştur. Çalışmamızda Türkiye ekonomisi için öncü göstergelerin daha önceki yıllardaki hareketleri incelenerek "Krizler daha önceden tahmin edilebilir mi?" sorusuna yanıt aranmıştır. Bu nedenle literatüre uygun muhtelif makroekonomik göstergeler kullanılarak daha önceki krizlerin öncü indikatörleri belirlenmiştir. Bu indikatörlerin kriz için ehemmiyeti kontrol edilmiş kriz öncesi ve sonrası oluşan farklılıklar tetkik edilmiştir. Belirlenen indikatörler için öncelikle tanımlamalar yapılarak faktör analizi uygulanmıştır. Faktör analizinin tanımı ve daha önceleri faktör analizi ile yapılan çalışmalar incelendikten sonra kriz adı altında kukla değişken oluşturulmuş ve model kurulmuştur. Model kriz değişkenimiz ile bağlantısı olan değişkenlerden oluşturulmuş ve modelin anlamlılığı test edilmiştir. Analiz sonucumuza göre kriz değişkeninin hangi indikatörlerle ilişkisi olduğu sonucu ortaya çıkmıştır. Bulunan değişkenlerin de hangi değişken ile en fazla etkileşim halinde olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Sonucunda modelimizin bağımlı değişkeni olarak döviz kuru indikatörü belirlenmiştir. Bağımlı değişken ile en yüksek düzeyde korele çıkan değişkenler de bağımsız değişken olarak modele dahil edilmiştir. Bunlar da cari açık, ödemeler dengesi ve portföy yatırımları değişkenleri olmuştur. Bu tez kapsamında saptanan değişkenlerin krizleri önceden tahmin etme konusunda olumlu etkilerinin olabileceği ortaya konmuştur.
Inter- and intra- dynamics of prices and volumes: Bitcoin and Ethereum in the pre- and peri-COVID-19 period
Bitcoin and Ethereum are the top two cryptocurrencies in the first and the second places respectively. This study looks to examine the inter and intra dynamics and relationship between Bitcoin price (BTCP), Ethereum price (ETHP), Bitcoin volume (BTCV) and Ethereum volume (ETHV). This study utilizes the Johansen Cointegration Test as well as the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to determine the long-run relationship between Bitcoin price (BTCP), Ethereum price (ETHP), Bitcoin volume (BTCV) and Ethereum volume (ETHV) before and during the COVID-19 pandemic and to determine whether the pandemic has any effect on the changes in prices and volumes of these cryptocurrencies. The study also utilizes daily data extracted from coinmarketcap.com for Bitcoin price and volume as well as for Ethereum price and volume from August 8, 2015 up to February 28, 2021 extracted on March 1, 2021. We find that the COVID-19 pandemic has no effect on the long run relationship between Bitcoin price (BTCP), Ethereum price (ETHP), Bitcoin volume (BTCV) and Ethereum volume (ETHV) for all the specifications. We also find that the pandemic has no effect on the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum but has an effect on their trading volumes in the short run. We find that the price of Bitcoin is positively related with the Bitcoin trading volume and positively related with the trading volume of Ethereum whereas the Ethereum price is negatively related with the Bitcoin trading volume and positively related with the trading volume of Ethereum. We also find that the price of Bitcoin is positively related with the trading volume of Bitcoin and negatively related with the trading volume of Ethereum. On the other hand, the price of Ethereum is positively related with trading volume of Bitcoin and positively related with the trading volume of Ethereum. Keywords: Bitcoin, COVID-19 pandemic, Ethereum, Price and Volume dynamics, VECM.
Essays on renewable energy consumption and its transition towards a sustainable future
This doctoral research thesis aims to conduct an empirical analysis of the factors that influence renewable energy consumption (REC) and its transition towards a sustainable future. The pressing need for adopting renewable energy arises from the depletion of non-renewable resources, concerns about climate change, and the escalating global energy demand. The study focuses on OECD and BRICS economies, examining dimensions such as trade policies, CO2 emissions, technological innovation, income inequality, economic growth, capital formation, and oil prices. The findings obtained through the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) and Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimators indicate that income inequality, GDP growth, trade openness, and oil prices positively affect REC in OECD countries, while carbon emissions have a negative association. In BRICS economies, an increase in income inequality, capital formation, CO2 emissions, and technological advancements hampers the adoption of renewable energy, while economic growth leads to higher REC. The country-specific AMG estimator identifies significant inverse relationship between CO2 emissions and REC in various OECD and BRICS economies. These countries have implemented effective policies, resulting in notable CO2 reductions. Additionally, a positive RECeconomic growth link is evident in nations such as the United States, and China, indicating active integration of renewable energy sources. Oil prices have a negative association with REC in Portugal and Turkey, influenced by specific economic factors. In China and Russia, income inequality negatively impacts REC due to unequal access to renewable energy technologies. Brazil's inverse REC-capital formation relationship is attributed to historical reliance on hydropower, while Mexico, Sweden, Germany, Finland, and Norway benefit from trade liberalization policies in boosting REC. These findings hold pivotal significance for policymakers, providing indispensable insights to formulate effective strategies and expedite the adoption of renewable energy. The policy implications serve as a foundational guide for constructing a greener and more sustainable future for generations to come. Keywords: AMG Estimator, BRICS Economies, Environmental Sustainability, OECD Economies, PMG Estimator, Renewable Energy Consumption.
Characteristics of the shariah supervisory board and CSR performance: The case of selected Islamic banks in the GCC and Malaysia
This study empirically examines the effects of the characteristics of the Shariah supervisory board (SSB) on the level of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) disclosure by a total of 30 selected full-fledged Islamic banks in the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries and Malaysia for the year 2018. Islamic banks have, without a doubt proven to be very successful over the years, yet the question as to whether they have been able to achieve the Islamic economic ideals based on which they emerged remains to be answered. In this study, we investigate the role that the SSB characteristics play in the CSR performance of IBs. CSR disclosure is used as a proxy for CSR performance. Building on previous studies, we examined the effects that SSB characteristics such as the board size, the shariah background of its members, doctoral qualification in Shariah, the internationality of the board, and professional qualification has on the level of CSR disclosure by Islamic banks (IBs). Using multiple regression analysis, we found CSR disclosure to be positively and significantly influenced by larger SSB size, higher numbers of scholars with a doctoral qualification in Shariah/fiqh, and increased shariah knowledge of SSB members. A pair-wise ANOVA comparison between the GCC and Malaysia found no significant difference in the CSR disclosure levels between the two regions. However, the same comparison made between the GCC countries confirmed the presence of intra-regional differences vi in CSR disclosure. The descriptive analysis of CSR shows disclosure levels to be moderate (55%) in general, and critically low when it comes to voluntary disclosures. Keywords: CSR, AAOIFI, Shariah supervisory board
The impact of external public debt on per capita income: In the case of common market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA)
This study examines the relationship between external public debt and real per capita income growth of Common Markets for Eastern and Southern African countries (COMESA). The study uses panel data covering the period between 1990-2018. We applied dynamic random effect, dynamic fixed effect, and generalized method of moments (GMM) models. Following the literature, we focus on variables of real per capita income (as a proxy for growth), gross general government debt, short-term external debt stock, external debt stock (% of GNI), external debt stock guarantee, long-term external debt stock, gross capital formation as an instrument for physical capital, labor force, real inflation rate, trade openness, external debt service, and debt service percentage of export. Our explanatory variables are gross government debt, short-term external debt stock, external debt stock (% of GNI), external debt stock guarantee, long-term external debt stock, debt service percentage of export, and external debt service, while the rest are used as control variables. Data come from the World Bank Development Indicators (WDI) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Keywords: Budget Deficits; COMESA; Dynamic Panel; Economic Growth; Gross Debt; GMM
An analysis of conditional income convergence in selected OECD countries
The concept of convergence is fundamentally the similarity in economies of a bunch of countries towards same steady state or growth level. The focal point of this thesis is finding the evidence of Beta and Sigma convergence in order to verify whether there is conditional income convergence among OECD countries over the period of 2000 to 2017 or not? The concept of Beta convergence is divided between Absolut and conditional convergence. β-convergence occurs If poor economies tend to grow faster than rich ones; however, if the dispersion of real GDP per capita levels of economies tend to decrease gradually over time period then it displays presence of σ-convergence. This study applies Beta and sigma convergence econometric methodology to specify conditional convergence existence among 33 OECD member economies. According to this method cross-section dataset is required to estimate parameters of Beta and sigma to confirm conditional real income convergence among selected economies. Parameters of beta convergence is estimated by Least Square method (OLS). The trade openness is taken into account as control variable adding it to Beta convergence regression equation. The empirical results of employed models are attested before interpretation through statistical significance measurement of the econometric models such as F-test for the whole model and t-test for testing robustness of individual parameters of the model. The findings appear to indicate strong positive absolute or unconditional and conditional convergence among 33 OECD member economies for the period of 2000 to 2017. The models robustness is tested by econometric verification technics where they all emphasize on absence of Autocorrelation or serial correlation. The model is homoscedastic and residuals are normally distributed as well. Additionally, the result of Sigma convergence stipulates that GDP per capita dispersion has declined over the selected time period among OECD economies.
The impact of foreign aid, political affiliation, ethnicity and location on welfare inequality in Uganda
Foreign aid is presented as one of the tools to combat poverty and ushering in economic development in developing countries, particularly in the sub-Saharan region. Given the billions of dollars dispatched in form of aid on various developmental and poverty elimination projects, the sub-Saharan region still portrays a good example of most poverty-stricken regions with billions of its population living under the poverty line. This study assesses the effect of foreign aid, political affiliation and ethnicity on welfare inequality in Uganda between 1999 and 2016. I found that foreign aid positive welfare implications for Ugandans who responded positively to the welfare related questions. The incumbent political party supporters and members of the ruling ethnic group have higher odds of experiencing better welfare compared to their counterparts. For the incumbent political party supporters, the odds of having good living conditions was 89 percent higher than the odds of the opposition political party supporters. Also, members of the non-ruling ethnic group who live in the ruling ethnic groups' constituencies have higher odds of having better welfare outcomes compared the non-ruling ethnic groups living in other constituencies. There is little evidence to prove that supporters of the ruling political party, members of the ruling ethnic group and individuals from other ethnic groups living in the ruling ethnic groups districts have higher odds of accessing foreign aid funds hence they experience better welfare outcomes.
Evaluating the impact of microfinance on household income and business sustainability: evidence from Afghanistan
Microfinance grew rapidly in emerging countries and got international recognition for its role in economic development and poverty alleviation. Afghanistan is also one of those countries where microfinance services for economic empowerment and entrepreneurship is increasingly observed in the rural and underserved sectors. In Afghanistan, where inadequate access to formal financial services hampers small business creation, microfinance is a potential solution for financial inclusion. Multiple studies have examined the effects of microfinance in Afghanistan's rural economy, especially in the face of a very low socio-economic and political landscape. This research addresses how microfinance helps small business entrepreneurs in rural Afghanistan to improve their entrepreneurial performance and household stability. The paper fills a significant literature gap using a quantitative cross-sectional data and OLS regression models. Using the data of 211 microfinance recipients, the models estimate how loan sizes, duration of loan, age, and education level affect business sustainability and household income of those people who received microfinance loan. The findings suggest that access to microfinance increases the duration of businesses and boosting household income by receiving microfinance loan. The more entrepreneurs who were provided with financial and non-financial services, the more businesses were able to sustain and expand. This research calls for specialised microfinance programmes that support the sector specific needs and for the incorporation of digital financial services to enhance access. These results offer concrete guidance for policymakers, development agencies and microfinance institutions, highlighting the need for new approaches to tackle current inequalities and increase economic resilience.
Testing for the structure-conduct-performance hypthesis in the context of the Gambia banks profitability
Recent findings showcasing the banking industry plays a pivotal role in any given economic development, which has ignited conversations about the growth and stability of banks within academic, policymaking, research, and economic circles. The study assesses two opposing hypotheses, the Structure-Conduct Performance Hypothesis and the Efficiency Structure Hypothesis in the banking industry of The Gambia. Six banks were used in the studies because of their long existence and availability of the data. Financial and income statements of each bank were used to compute the financial indicators ratios, which were requested from the Central Bank of the Gambia. Quarterly data was provided spanning from 2008q1 to 2022q4. Pre-estimation tests were conducted to analyze our data, including descriptive statistics, cross-sectional dependency, slope homogeneity, and unit root test. Pre-estimated tests enabled us to employ both static and dynamic models, comprising the Fixed Effect Model, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS). Using two dependent variables, ROE and NIM; whereas Concentration ratio and Market Share are our main focus independent variables and a vector of control variables of EAR, LDR, BS, and banks type. The findings support the efficiency structure hypothesis, which demonstrates a positive and significant value across all models. On the other hand, there was no enough evidence to support the StructureConduct Performance Hypothesis during our study. Therefore, we conclude that there is no evidence of collusion in banking industry of The Gambia. Furthermore, all the control variables were found to be positive and significantly contributed to the bank performance. The study also found the dummy variable bank type to be significant. The conventional banks dominate the banking industry's market share in term of profitability, liquidity and capital adequacy; however, the Islamic bank demonstrated to be more efficiency and less risky than their counterpart. This study suggests that policymakers should focus on policies and strategies to promote efficiency and fair competition in the banking industry; and regulators should design policies that are tailored to fit each bank type operations and investment opportunities in the sector of The Gambia. Keywords: Concentration, Market share, Structure-Conduct-Performance and Efficiency Structure hypotheses.
The circular economy development in Tunisia: A performance analysis
This research explores the relationship between Circular Economy Performance (CEP) and economic growth in Tunisia over 1992–2022, emphasizing comparative analysis of pre-Arab spring and post-Arab spring periods. The study makes key contributions: first, a comprehensive econometric analysis of CEP impacts on GDP growth in Tunisia using a multidimensional approach; second, a framework examining how regional political upheavals alter circular economy-growth relationships; third, incorporating human development and capital stock variables for holistic understanding of economic growth determinants in transitional economies. Using Ordinary Least Squares regression, the study analyzes how CEP constructed from four key indicators Renewable Energy Share (final consumption), CO₂ Emissions per capita, Energy Intensity (energy use per unit GDP), and Domestic Material Consumption per capita affects Tunisia's GDP growth alongside Human Development Index, Capital Stock, and Labor Force. The econometric model examines the comparative impact of these variables on economic growth in pre-Arab Spring (1992–2010) and post-Arab Spring (2011–2022) periods to understand how political transition and institutional changes altered relationships between circular economy practices and economic performance. While many studies have examined the relationship between CEP and economic growth in developed countries, confirming a positive relationship, this research applies the framework to Tunisia, where the Arab Spring introduced profound political and economic transformations. The study aims to determine whether circular economy practices contribute positively to Tunisia's economic growth and how this relationship evolved following the Arab Spring revolution. By constructing a comprehensive CEP index from the four environmental and resource efficiency indicators, the study seeks to quantify the economic benefits of circular economy implementation within the context of democratic transition in a North African developing economy. The analysis identifies which specific circular economy components demonstrate the strongest correlation with GDP growth and examines whether political transformation strengthened or weakened these relationships through changing institutional frameworks and policy priorities. Additionally, the study assesses complementary roles of human development, capital stock, and labor force in driving economic growth alongside circular economy practices during periods of political stability versus transition. Findings will provide valuable insights for policymakers in Tunisia and similar developing economies undergoing democratic transitions regarding the economic viability of circular economy adoption and resilience to political and institutional shocks. Keywords: Arab Spring, Circular Economy, Economic Growth, Performance, Political Transition, Tunisia
The intergenerational transmission of earnings and mobility in Türki̇ye
Bu tez, Türkiye'nin belirgin coğrafi farklılıklar ve ekonomik dönüşümlerle karakterize edilen yapısı içinde, Nesiller arası Hareketlilik (NAM), çok boyutlu yoksulluk ve sosyoekonomik eşitsizlik arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Mevcut çalışma, çok boyutlu yoksulluk ve teknolojik gelişmeyi bir araya getirerek, Türkiye'deki hareketlilik dinamiklerine daha kapsamlı bir açıklama sunmayı amaçlayan bütüncül bir çerçeve kullanmaktadır. Mevcut tezin, Türkiye'de ebeveyn gelir düzeyi ile çocukların işgücü piyasasındaki başarıları arasındaki ilişkinin ampirik yönünü, Bayesci bir yaklaşım kullanarak analiz etmektedir. Bulgular, çocukların gelirlerinin ebeveynlerinin gelirleriyle olan ilişkisinin, kariyerlerinin orta düzeyinde daha güçlü olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Mevcut tez, aile kaynaklı zorlukların etkisinin yanı sıra, Beceri Yanlı Teknolojik Değişimin (BYTD) nesiller arası hareketlilik üzerindeki etkisini de incelemektedir. Bulgular, BYTD'nin daha yüksek insan sermayesine sahip olanlara—genellikle daha az dezavantajlı hanelerden gelen bireyler—öncelik tanıyarak ekonomik eşitsizliği artırdığını ortaya koymaktadır. Bu teknolojik dönüşümden orantısız bir şekilde fayda sağlayan sosyoekonomik olarak avantajlı ailelerden gelen çocuklar, mevcut eşitsizliklerin sürdürülmesine ve düşük gelirli ailelerden gelen bireylerin hareketliliklerinin sınırlanmasına neden olmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın sonuçları, teknik ilerlemenin getirdiği faydaların adaletsiz dağılımını ve çok boyutlu yoksulluğu ele alan hükümet politikalarının gerekliliğini vurgulamaktadır. Yoksulluk ve teknolojik gelişmenin gelecekteki sosyoekonomik eğilimleri şekillendirdiği Türkiye gibi geçiş ekonomilerinde, yapısal eşitsizliklerin giderilmesi yoluyla daha adil bir kalkınma sağlanabilir ve ekonomik hareketlilik artırılabilir. Bu çalışma, Alkire-Foster yöntemi aracılığıyla, konut, sağlık, eğitim ve temel yaşam standartları gibi önemli boyutlardaki yoksunlukları yansıtan, ulusal düzeyde temsil gücüne sahip verilerle bir Çok Boyutlu Yoksulluk Endeksi (ÇBYE) oluşturmuştur. Ampirik bulgular, yüksek düzeyde çok boyutlu yoksulluğun yukarı yönlü hareketliliği önemli ölçüde kısıtladığını ve konut yoksunluğu ile çocukların gelirleri arasında güçlü bir negatif korelasyon bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca, aşırı yoksul hanelerden gelen çocuklar, yalnızca anlık finansal fırsat eksikliği yaşamakla kalmayıp, aynı zamanda uzun vadeli sosyoekonomik ilerleme açısından ciddi engellerle karşı karşıya kalmaktadır.
Understanding the causes of child labor and its sectoral distribution in Turkey
Both in world and in Turkey, child labor still continues to be a major problem. The nature of describing the causes of this issue is complex. However, this dissertation focuses on the causes of child labor and its sectoral distribution in Turkey. In this focus, this thesis explains that the causes of child labor using probit and weighted probit models with several factors such as characteristics of households, children related factors, demographic decomposition of household and spatial factors. Moreover, multinomial logit model is used to which sectors are considerably affected by these factors.
Trends of financial allocations for The Kurdistan Regional Government of The Iraq federal budget
The imbalance in Iraq's federal budget after 2003 was mostly an estimated not a real deficit. The real deficit is the actual or nominal deficit adjusted for inflation's effect on the debt. In particular the real deficit equals the nominal deficit minus the inflation rate time the total debt in a given year. The significant escalation in public revenues as a result of the increase in oil prices and exported quantities exceeded estimates. Consequently, the accumulation of foreign reserves increased. Another reason for reducing or eliminating the deficit in the budget could be the incomplete implementation of the public expenditures because of the poor execution and delay in approving the budget. That ultimately led to a surplus in the general budget and foreign reserves. Thus, it can state that the deficit in the public budget caused by lower oil revenues and the increase in public expenditures. The allocation of a fixed share of 17% of the federal budget to the Kurdistan Regional Government led to tremendous economic development during the period from 2003 to 2014. However, from 2014 to 2018, the federal government cut (stopped sending) Kurdistan's allocation from the federal budget, which affected negatively on the region's economic growth. This study aims to clarify the operational and investment allocations for federal budgets and elucidate the operational and investment assignments to the Kurdistan Regional Government. Also, it seeks to identify the feasibility of the Kurdistan Regional Government's commitment to the federal budget law. Furthermore, it evaluates the negative and positive impacts of the lack of responsibility of the Kurdistan regional government to abide by the federal budget law. Iraq and the Kurdistan Region are the central areas of the study, and the first period is from 2006 to 2018. The most relevant results that this study came up are the followings: 1. The oil sector is the primary source of the financial funding of the federal budget and also in attracting foreign currency to assist in advancing economic development. Oil revenues were (42287900) million dinars in the (2006) and increased to (77160392.64) million dinars in 2018). That is because: (A) The Iraqi economy relies on the oil sector to finance the federal budget. (B) The drop in the price of oil in 2016 was because of the emergence of shale oil. (C) OPEC's insistence on the same amount of production for maintaining its hare in the world oil market. 2. While the contribution of investment expenditure reached 18.19% in (2006), it increased to %23.56 in 2018. Even though these proportions in the investment agreement, there is no tangible presence on the ground of prosperity and development. That indicates that there is a waste in the money allocated for investment and not being implemented. As a result of financial and administrative corruption. 3. The regional government abides the federal budget law from 2006 to 2013, which led to the development of the infrastructure and services to the residence of the region and increased economic well-being. However, Kurdistan's government did not abide by the law of the federal budget from 2014 to 2018. That resulted in the loss of expenditure investment (21934640.89 million) and the paralysis of thousands of investment projects in the region. According to the results of the study, the following recommendations made:- 1 - Cleansing the state agencies, even at a high level, from corruption and mischief in Iraq and the Kurdistan region. Avoiding, ultimately, all forms of nepotism in executing small and enormous projects. Improving the managerial performance of the entire state agencies and enhancing their abilities. Encouraging the spirit of transparency and accountability for achieving the principle of equal opportunities and respecting the law. That is all to maintain public and private money. 2- Decreasing the spending at the expense of the operational budget in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region. Increasing the expenditure at the expense of the investment budget because it contributes really to achieving economic development. 3- Diversifying the sources of public revenues, particularly tax revenues, finding an effective tax system in Iraq and the Kurdistan region. 4- the responsibility of all the minister in ninth Cabinet to head towards the agreement with the federal government for ensuring public expenditure (operational expenditure and investment expenditure) General Budget, Public Expenditure, Iraqi Economy, Total Revenues. Keywords:
Essays on the rebound effects of the energy efficiency
The industry contributes the most to the world's energy savings in all sectors through more efficient energy use (IEA, 2018). Yet, the literature provides evidences that the potential Energy Efficiency (EE) savings in the industry are not fully achieved. The gap between the potential EE measures and the actual implemented measures is called "energy efficiency gap" and might offset the increase in energy savings. In this thesis, we firstly measure the size of energy efficiency gap, resulted from the energy efficiency improvements (EEI) aiming to save electricity and heat within the fourteen sub-sectors in the Turkish industry. Secondly, we reveal the reasons for the energy efficiency gap by focusing on behavioural and organizational responses to EEI the Turkish industry. To this end, we developed a questionnaire, which consists of questions that if the implementer of an EEI considers a factor as a barrier and driver. We conducted a questionnaire survey with 135 industrial enterprises that have completed at least one state-funded Efficiency Improvement Project (EIP). 86 of them responded to the survey. The results show that the energy intensity level and scale of enterprises take the lead in the importance of perceived barriers and drivers. The findings also suggest that the average scores of the perceived barriers in Small and Medium-sized Enterprises [SMEs] are mostly higher than those in Large-sized enterprises [LEs]. This finding reveals that the tendency of considering a factor as a barrier diminishes as the scale becomes larger. Finally, we applied the PLS-SEM methodology to the primary data. Specifically, the results demonstrate that increasing awareness, improving techno-economic capability, reinforcing subsidies and incentives, mitigating economy, information, and competence-related issues would result in improving EE. If the performances of EIPs, sectoral experiences, and good practices about them, energy conservation opportunities through them are shared among the firms, EE improves.
Pricing behavior in a dynamic duopoly: An experimental study
This thesis experimentally explores the two pricing equilibria proposed by Maskin and Tirole (1988b): monopoly pricing via tacit collusion (kinked demand equilibrium) and the Edgeworth cycle. We designed a laboratory experiment, precisely following Maskin and Tirole (1988b), involving an alternating-move duopoly game in which subjects decide on the price level. Three treatments are conducted, differing in initial price and discount rate as the experiment parameters. Kinked demand equilibrium is tested as the null hypothesis and is rejected by price responses collected from the experiment. We also observe that the Edgeworth cycle is not prominent in the data to its fullest extent. The results reveal myopic pricing behavior, with subjects predominantly lowering prices to undercut rivals. Furthermore, convergence to the low markup equilibrium is common in almost all treatments. Therefore, participants primarily follow a myopic Bertrand strategy, resulting in a low markup equilibrium over the marginal cost.
Constructing fragility indices for islamic banks: Definition impact on the predictive power of an early warning system
This study examines the Early Warning Systems (EWSs) based on banking sector fragility indices (BSFIs) for Islamic banks. To this aim, we construct various BSFIs for Islamic banks and detect EWS models which will produce substantial predictive power results for Islamic banking crises utilizing data from 81 banks in 12 countries over a recent time period 2008-2018. We provide solid BSFI definitions for Islamic banks by discovering the significant risk factors and their proxies to improve the predictive performance of the EWS models. We examine the impact of BSFI definitions on the predictive power of EWS models through constructing various indices. The definitions of BSFIs differ both in terms the risk factors that Islamic banks are exposed to and, the proxies to measure those risk factors. Our results suggest that different BSFI definitions identify different indicators of Islamic banking crises. The predictive power of an Early Warning System (EWS) for Islamic banks is highly sensitive to the definition of BSFIs.
Economic growth in Iran from the gender perspective
Feminist economics which emerged during women's movement in the nineteenth century has developed the concept of gender relations in the various aspects of social and economic life. It challenges the male-dominated economic methods and questions why women have been ignored in economic activities and seeks to improve the economic situation of women. In traditional economy, domestic work which is the cheapest and most difficult phase of production has been considered as a woman task. However, women have the largest share of world unpaid jobs, but their participation of the world's total workforce is more than past years. Some economic analysts like Kenny Dawn argue that if women were hired in jobs with pay, the world's economic situation was much better than the current one. In this thesis we will try to introduce the feminist economics which is a new subject to the literature, gives a new perspective on economic life, make contributions to the feminist movement and examine female prespective on economic approaches. A review of studies up today, mostly reveal that the status of women in the economy has been ignored. Also, in this study, it was aimed to investigate the woman's perspective on the economics. For this purpose, in the first chapter after the concept of feminism is explained, the emergence process of feminism is set forth. Different types of feminist economics theories has formed the second part of study. The last part of the study describes the contribution of feminist economics in the economic and social life and feminist economics point of view regarding the concept of women in the economy has been explained with reference to the views of feminist economists. Actually by means of gender inequality factor, we analyzed the economic growth in Iran. We investigate whether gendered outcomes in labor markets and education have macroeconomic effects and, in particular, whether gender inequality affects the rate of economic growth. Based on the results obtained in this study, it can be argued that reducing gender inequality increases the rate of economic growth. Decreasing gender inequality in employment and education increases the rate of economic growth, in other words, empowering women and increasing the participation of them in economic activities will lead to a high growth rate of economy. Keywords: Economics, Feminism, Feminist Economics, Gender inequality, Growth
Political economy of eurozone debt crisis in the context of varieties of capitalism debate
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, capitalism became the dominant economic system that attracted academia to the subject. While most of the studies on capitalism put "state" at the center of their analysis/theories, the varieties of capitalism (VoC) theory put the firm at the center of its analysis, which made it popular in the last two decades. VoC classifies the economy according to firms' strategy to overcome five spheres where potential problems arise: industrial relations; vocational training and education; corporate governance; inter-firm relations; and employees. VoC also makes a classification of national economies: liberal market, coordinated market, and mixed market economies. This study analyzes the Eurozone debt crisis within the framework of VoC theory and takes the German economy as the case study to link the debt crisis with the national economies and the existing economic and monetary policies of the Eurozone (Economic and Monetary Union, EMU). Germany is examined in terms of its economic characteristics; her role in the establishment of EMU policies; and her response during the Eurozone debt crisis. The scope of analysis is limited to the time period between the establishment of EMU and Eurozone debt crisis, and to the geography of the Eurozone continent (Northern and Southern economies). The methodology of the research is a desk-based analysis of macroeconomic statistical data. The basic argument of this study is that the existing EMU policies are designed to contribute to national economies of the northern countries (coordinated market economies) denoted by the basic macroeconomic indicators and the conclusion of this study concludes that Eurozone debt crisis was a consequence of common policies of Eurozone that neglected the unique peculiarities of member states' economies. The findings of this study suggest that instead of uniformity of economic and monetary policies, unity in diversity would be a better solution to the problems of EU in times of crisis.
An assessment of new regionalism: the case of Turkey
This study analyzes the New Regionalism literature, and evaluates the renewed planning agenda which is assigned for sub-national regions in Turkey by making use of the New Regionalism. For that purpose, initially, the history of regional development planning following the establishment of the Republic of Turkey in 1923 is discussed. Later, New Regionalism is examined, starting with an evaluation of its origins. The main concepts of the literature are introduced, and the severe criticisms raised against it are studied in depth. Today, New Regionalism provides the dominant discourse in regional studies, and contributes drastically to the regional planning agendas of international institutions. The European Union, which has a significant impact on Turkey's political and economic issues, is one of these institutions. Therefore, after the intensified relations with the European Union following the Helsinki Summit, it was inevitable that the literature would penetrate into Turkey's regional development strategies. This thesis searches for exactly these specific regional development strategies which can be grouped under the diffusion of New Regionalism. To this end, some public plans and documents, which are prepared by the State Planning Organization, Small and Medium Enterprises Development Organization, and Ministry of Industry and Trade in the last decade, are covered. The conclusion reached is that, as they are addressed by a step by step evaluation of these plans, most of them are heavily characterized by the New Regionalism literature. This study paves the way for possible future research which will seek to reformulate Turkey's New Regionalist policies, by taking account of the criticisms.
Three essays on the dynamics of global financial contagion: A macroeconomic analysis of intangible capital
The dissertation intricately explores the global economic responses to shocks with a nuanced focus on capital structures across different geographies. The first chapter examines the recovery patterns post-economic shocks, revealing how disparities in tangible and intangible capital ownership impact economic outcomes. A significant emphasis is placed on the distinction between core regions rich in intangible assets, such as R\&D, and peripheries dependent on external capital and burdened with knowledge rent obligations. Chapter two delves deeper into the mechanics of financial shocks within a globalized framework, employing a two-country macroeconomic model to distinguish between core and periphery economies. Our research indicates that intangible assets, serving as stable collateral, respond more robustly to economic shocks than traditional physical forms. Moreover, the study highlights the complex transmission mechanisms of productivity and leverage shocks, revealing that while the financial sector effectively assimilates the positive economic outcomes resulting from a productivity shock, leverage shocks, despite depleting capital, paradoxically stimulate overall economic output. In the third chapter, empirical methods test theoretical models to scrutinize the transmission mechanisms of macroeconomic shocks and their impacts on advanced versus emerging economies. This analysis supports a profound relationship between the proportion of intangible to tangible capital and an economy's ability to withstand financial shocks. Economies with lower shares of intangible capital showcase increased susceptibility, particularly to monetary and leverage shocks, reinforcing the disproportionate effects experienced in peripheral regions.
Gender and business performance in Turkey: Evidence from World Bank enterprise survey
In this paper, gender gaps in business performance between women and men shared, owned or led businesses in Turkey are analyzed, using the World Bank Enterprise Survey Data of 2019. We estimate the differences by Ordinary Least Squares regression. The main findings show that women shared and led firms perform better in sales revenue and profits while women owners have significantly worse sales revenue outcomes. In addition, firms led by women tend to grow significantly less than men-led firms. As an indicator of efficiency, value added is used and among our findings we see that while women shared firms are more efficient, there are no gender differences for managers and owners. Part of the reason why women shared firms perform better is that, women sharers concentrate on sectors that are bigger in sales revenue and more efficient. Further, we find women shared firms to be more likely to apply for loans, and no gender differences for managers and owners.
Politicians, parties, and tenure: How public procurements are affected in Turkey on municipality level
This research uses the Difference-in-Differences method to study the impact of a ruling party change in a metropolitan municipality on procurements. Municipalities with a change in the ruling party were compared with the others according to the procurement contract data from Turkey. Results show that cities with newly elected mayors perform better than others in most parameters. They use competitive and transparent methods more, and additionally make more savings. Little to no differences were found in mechanisms that have been previously associated with abuse of power, but abuse may not be the case in the period that has been inspected in this thesis. Overall, it can be said that the ruling party change resulted in better outcomes in the matter of procurements.
1500'den 2000'e küresel nüfus hareketlerinin analizi
This thesis explores the main reasons behind human mobility since 1500, focusing on the different regional effects of various economic, political, social, and geographic factors. The initial cross-country analysis highlights the significant impact of geographic elements and historical influences on migration. The bilateral data structure in the second analysis allowed us to examine the effects in both source and destination countries at the same time, along with bilateral factors. Three main conclusions emerged from this study. First, migration is influenced by both source and destination countries, requiring an origin-destination framework for accurate historical migration assessment. Second, analyzing deep-rooted factors at the regional level provides more accurate results, as shown by the differences between the Eurasia and Sub-Saharan Africa regions. A global analysis might lead to biased results. Lastly, historical migrations were shaped by complex economic, political, and geographic influences in unique ways. Although often used as natural experiments in economic analysis, colonial migrations are affected by a complex network of factors and need to be considered carefully.
Environmental Kuznets Curve and trade liberalization
This thesis investigates the potential effects of trade liberalization on the functional relationship between pollution and income, namely the Environmental Kuznets Curve, for a sample of 52 developing countries. Using GDP per capita as a measure of income and CO2 emissions per capita as a measure of pollution, this study shows that trade liberalization has a signicant effect on the hypothesized relationship. Our results indicate that pre-liberalization period is characterized by a linear relationship. However, trade liberalization does not induce the pattern towards an inverted U-shaped relation. Instead, it accelerates income driven pollution. This finding is in line with the pollution haven hypothesis which claims that trade liberalization can be a trigerring factor in the relocation of the dirty industries via foreign direct investment (FDI) from the developed countries to the developing countries where the environmental standards are relatively less strict
Türk bankacılık sektöründe finansal teknoloji ürünleri: Müşteri kullanımı üzerine inceleme
Finans ve teknoloji dünyasının gelişimi ve birleşimi beraberinde finansal teknoloji kavramını ortaya çıkarmıştır. Finansal teknoloji ile finansal hizmetler, teknolojiyle gerçekleştirilebilmekte ve bu kavram her geçen gün yaygınlaşmaktadır. Finans sektörünün en güçlü aktörlerinden bankacılık sektörü de gelişim ve değişimle birlikte, geleneksel bankacılık ürünlerinin yerini finansal teknoloji ürünlerine bırakmaya başlamıştır. Genel araştırmalarda dijital bankacılık ürünleri araştırılırken bu çalışmada; Türk bankacılık sektöründeki ürünlerden, müşterilerin finansal teknoloji ürün tercihlerini ve bu tercihleri doğrultusunda ürün kullanımlarını ele almaktadır. Nitel araştırma yöntemlerinden görüşme tekniği kullanılarak, aktif banka müşterilerinin bankacılıktaki finansal teknoloji ürün tercihleri tespit edilmiş, müşteri ürün kullanım detayları incelenmiştir. Müşterilerin ürünleri tercih etme nedenlerinin çoğunlukla hız, kolaylık, zaman ve para tasarrufu olduğu görülmektedir. Ek olarak müşterilerin finansal teknoloji ürünlerini güvenli bulma durumunda çoğunluğun kullanımı güvenli bulduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu tercihlerin bankacılık sektöründe yarattığı durumlara; sektördeki teknolojik gelişim, operasyonel masrafların azalması gibi durumlar açısından olumlu bakılırken, şubelerin azalarak çalışan sayısının düşmesi ve benzeri durumlar olumsuz olarak değerlendirilmektedir. Tüm araştırma ve değerlendirmeler sonucunda, müşterilerin yeni finansal teknoloji ürünlerine dair görüşleri de dikkate alınarak ürünlerin gelişimi için önerilerde bulunulmuştur.
Global sürdürülebilirlik hedeflerine yönelik blokzincir teknolojisi çözümleri ve uygulamaları
Bu araştırma günümüzün devrimsel bilgi ve iletişim teknolojilerinden birisi olan blokzincir teknolojisinin kurumların global sürdürülebilir kalkınma hedeflerine yönelik amaçlarına aracılık edebilmesine yönelik yapılmış bir çalışmadır. Günümüzde önemi daha fazla hissedilen sürdürülebilirliğin sosyal, çevresel ve yönetimsel başlıkları gerek hükümetler gerek organizasyonlar ve gerekse kar amacı güden ticari kurumlar tarafından somut bir şekilde ele alınmaktadır. Özellikle de son dönemde kanun koyucular piyasaları yönlendirme gücü olan banka ve yatırım şirketleri gibi fon sağlayıcılarını kullanarak global sürdürülebilirlik hedeflerine çok daha hızlı ulaşılması ve anlamlı bir yol verilebilmesi için çeşitli çalışmalar yürütmektedir. AB taksonomisi bu konudaki öncülerden olup Türkiye'de Çevre ve Şehircilik Bakanlığının oluşturduğu iklim kanunu; Türkiye Yeşil Taksonomi buna örnektir. Bu noktada sürdürülebilirlik hedeflerine ulaşım aşamalarında güvenilirlik, şeffaflık, merkeziyetsizlik ve izlenebilirlik özellikleri ile ön plana çıkan blokzincir teknolojisi araç olmakta, dünya genelinde bu alandaki uygulamalar giderek çoğalmaktadır. Blokzincir kripto ekonomisinin çok daha ötelerine uzanan diğer yapay zeka, nesnelerin interneti (IoT) başta olmak üzere birçok teknoloji ile uyumlanarak klasik süreçlere göre verimliliği arttıran, maliyetleri azaltan, bugünün ve geleceğin teknolojisi olarak çok önemli olduğu kabul görmektedir. Bu çalışmada blokzincir teknolojisinin çalışma mantığından ve genel olarak hangi alanlarda kullanıldığından bahsedilmiş olup, ardından sürdürülebilirlik hedeflerine ulaşmak üzere karbon emisyon ticareti, yeşil ekonomi, ReFi (Onarıcı Finansman) ve döngüsel ekonomi gibi önemli başlıklarda blokzincir teknolojisinin kullanıldığı proje örneklerine yer verilmiştir. Ayrıca son olarak Türkiye'deki şirketler üzerinde bu konulardaki farkındalığı ölçen anket çalışması ve sonuçları yer almaktadır. Bu anlamda Türkiye'de bu bilgilerin ve teknolojik altyapılarının yetersiz olduğu bunun çözümüne yönelik birçok kamu ve özel sektörün acil eylem planı oluşturması gerektiği önerilmektedir.
The welfare effects of changes in global food prices on income distribution in Turkey
This study examines the pass-through effects of global food prices on food prices in Turkey, and the welfare effects of food price changes on income distribution in Turkey. Food products are the indispensable part of the consumption basket for entire households, especially for low-income groups. Therefore, food price changes can directly influence the living conditions of people positively or adversely. To figure out these impacts in Turkey, we first obtain the pass-through coefficients for the selected food groups using econometric tools. Then, we integrate these coefficients and Turkish household groups, which are divided into five brackets based upon nominal income, into the CGE analysis. This analysis allows us to estimate how an economy can react to changes in a part of the economy under the determined framework. Finally, we apply both a positive 5% shock and a negative 5% shock to world food prices. According to the findings, the income of all household groups declines when global food prices surge. However, rising food prices have a more adverse effect on low-income household groups, and accordingly distort income distribution in Turkey. Inversely, under the scenario wherein world food prices decline, low-income households are affected more positively in wealth terms. It is observed that income distribution in Turkey recovers slightly. Meanwhile, disruptive impact of increased food prices is stronger than remedial impact of tumbled prices on income distribution.
Comparing systemic risk measures during a financial crash
This paper investigates 2000 Turkish Banking Crisis utilizing market based and network based systemic risk measures. In this investigation, MES, SRISK and ΔCoVaR are taken as market based measures whereas Degree centrality, Closeness centrality and Betweenness centrality are evaluated as financial network measures. The analyses are performed for 12 Turkish Banks and the performance of the inherently different systemic risk measures in identifying and detecting the stress of the banking sector are compared with an event study. The findings suggest that different systemic risk measures point out different systemically important financial institutions (SIFI). Empirically, we derive that (1) SRISK is capable of capturing a too-connected-to-fail bank, Demirbank, despite its market based nature and that (2) MES is the only measure providing statistically significant results for market, too-connected-to-fail banks and too-big-to-fail banks together.
Macro stress testing on the credit risk of the banking sector in Turkey
In our thesis research we conduct a stress test of banking sector in Turkey. Firstly, we develop a model where we regress total and sectoral NPL rates on their lags and macroeconomic indicators. By using the results of the regression we conduct stress tests. As stress test scenarios we use 3 cases. We analyze how the NPL rates of Turkish banking sector would respond to the 2001 and 2008 crisis scenarios and we also look at baseline scenario based on the expectation of OECD on Turkish economy. Based on the results of stress test, not all of the banks in Turkey meet the capital adequacy ratio requirement and under the 2008 crisis scenario total NPL rates rise up to 6.07\%. Our sectoral regressions suggest that while our macroeconomic variables are all significant in defining the total NPL rates, some sectoral NPL rates do not necessarily depend on all of them.
A system dynamic macroeconomic model for an inquiry of income inequality and environmental impact
Ending hunger, reducing poverty and inequalities, and climate action are the main objectives of the political agenda in the recent years. However, these objectives may be in conflict. Economic growth is promoted to end hunger and reduce poverty; however, a growing economy may well increase human impact on the environment. It is also true that an income redistribution scheme may increase aggregate demand—hence, the economic activity and subsequently the environmental impact. In this thesis, we build a system dynamic macroeconomic model to cope with the intricate relationships among income distribution, economic growth, and human impact on the environment. The model is based on macroeconomic accounting principles, and represents a closed economy with a representative firm, three heterogeneous households, and a simple banking sector. We argue that an aggressive income redistribution scheme can achieve the whole objectives in the policy agenda, while a mild redistribution scheme may worsen the environmental problems. This thesis contributes to the recent Ecological Macroeconomics literature by examining the relationship between income distribution and environmental impact of the human activity by relying on a system dynamics approach.
The effects of index constituent changes to Borsa Istanbul's Bist 100 and Bist 30 indices
This thesis examines the quarterly index revisions of BIST 100 and BIST30 indices of Borsa Istanbul Stock Exchange and tries to capture the effects and implications of these events on the prices and the volumes of the revised stocks. The purpose of this study is to search the effects of being in the scope of BIST 100 or BIST 30 indices on the stock performance by using abnormal return and abnormal volume concepts with the event study method. It is examined for a total of 296 changes in BIST 100 index and a total of 96 changes in BIST 30 index for the period of 2009 through 2017. The results have shown that although both of the stocks that included to BIST 100 index and BIST 30 index have positive abnormal returns, the results are statistically insignificant. However, the stocks excluded from the indices have statistically significant negative abnormal returns. Nevertheless, abnormal volumes exist with statistically significant results for both of the index composition change events.
The informal borrowing ratio in Turkey
This study aims to analyze empirically the behavior of individuals with respect to the choice between formal and informal borrowing. Informal borrowing stands for the borrowing practiced through informal institutions such as friends, relatives, moneylenders, other informal financial institutions whereas formal borrowing is defined as borrowing from banks and other formal credit institutions. The examination of the reasons behind the preference of informal versus formal type of borrowing is expected to contribute to the understanding of the structure of credit markets with a demand side analysis. Data from the Credit Card Consumer Survey conducted in 2009 in Turkey is used, in which 1014 participants have positive debt. The zero/one inflated beta regression model is utilized to estimate the proportion of informal borrowing in total debt, allowing the possibility that the boundary values of zero and one are generated through different decision processes. The results indicate that while informal borrowing cannot be completely eliminated since it is an option especially for people who borrow in higher amounts or people who are credit constrained, it can be reduced by policy makers and pioneers of the financial sector through enhancing integration to formal financial services and finding solutions to credit constraints.
The effect of Syrian refugees on the school enrollment of youth in Turkey
Since the beginning of the Syrian conflicts, many people took refuge in neighboring countries. Turkey is the top refugee-hosting country today with the number of nearly 3.6 million registered refugees. This study is conducted to estimate the effect of Syrian refugees on the high school and school enrollment of native youth. Instrumental variable approach is employed by exploiting the variation in the refugee fraction. Since both timings of the influx of Syrian individuals and the implementation of new education reform coincide, controlling for the effect of education policy makes notable differences in the results. I find that there is no significant effect of Syrian refugees on the high school enrollment of both male and female youth. However, there are some significant and positive impacts on the school enrollment. Individuals who have more educated household heads and males whose household heads are formally working increase their school enrollment as a response to the refugee influx. The reason of finding a positive effect would be that 18-year-old individuals have lower enrollment rates than other age groups since these significant results disappear if individuals who are at the age of 15-17 are included in the sample.
Using machine learning to develop an asset allocation application
This paper aims to analyze factor mimicking portfolio (FMP) construction in the context of Machine Learning and use it in a practical application. Inflation is chosen as the target macroeconomic factor in this study. We show that in the FMP construction process, Linear regression model performs better than LASSO and Ridge regression. In order to provide an application with FMP, Random Forest model is utilized in forecasting future inflation values so that asset allocation in the FMP can be done accordingly. While forecast accuracy of the Random Forest model is better than 1-period lag and simple moving average models, Rolling ARIMA model has smaller forecast error. However, FMP which is updated by the inflation forecasts from Random Forest provide more profit, higher Sharpe and Sortino ratios, and smaller maximum drawdown than the one with the Rolling ARIMA. Lastly, we follow a strategy such that we invest 95% of the initial capital to equally weighted portfolio and 5% of the initial capital to the FMP. We show that the proposed model outperforms the market where equally weighted portfolio of the same assets is used as market benchmark.
Symmetric equilibrium in contests: Evidence from a TV show
This paper analyzes symmetric equilibrium resolving the behaviors of the contestants in a cooking contest where points are revealed at the end of each stage. There is an independent observer who evaluates the cook without revealing her grades until the last stage. This research differs from the past papers regarding these two issues. The focus is on the paper by Schüller et al. (2014) where the pro-social behavior in another cooking contest "Come Dine with Me" is analyzed. This paper depicts the differences and compares the results with that research. It constructs equilibrium for this multi-stage game with the assumption that the contestants are rational. It is also observed that the contestants indeed converge to this suggested equilibrium most of the time; although, coordination is not always possible among the contestants. Moreover, this paper explains the deviations from the equilibrium in behavioral concepts. Furthermore, it is examined that the first contestant is disadvantageous, and that the independent observer has an immense impact on the results.
The role of technological optimism in international climate agreements
This research aims to explore the role of technological optimism in international climate agreements and how technological optimism affects the climate-related behaviors of countries. To this end, I built upon the dynamic game with stocks proposed by Harstad (2012, 2016), which takes emissions and green technology investments as contractible strategies. An R&D project that aims to invent a technology that will decrease the accumulation of greenhouse gases is introduced into the model. A comparison between my model, where the R&D dimension is exclusively considered, and the baseline model proposed by Harstad will capture how technological optimism may alter the behavior of countries. With the presence of an R&D project, emission levels and the greenhouse gas stock increase, and the global stock of green technology and its investments decrease for all countries in both the first-best (cooperative) and the business-as-usual (non-cooperative) outcomes. The effect of technological optimism increases when the R&D project is expected to invent a more robust technology to decrease greenhouse gas accumulation. My model explores how relying on a future technology affects the current action plan to tackle climate change, thus contributing to the literature on international climate agreements, dynamic games and technological optimism.
Welfare analysis of regional population distribution in Turkey
Rapid urbanization in the last century has been accompanied with growing number of studies on spatial economics. Determining which factors affect households' location choices is one of the most prominent topics that has been worked on in the literature. The aim of this thesis is to analyze region-specific characteristics and to examine their relative importance on location choices of households in Turkey at NUTS-2 level. The thesis contributes to the current literature by providing model-based estimates for the importance of region-specific characteristics on the population allocation and welfare in Turkey, which are also used for conducting counterfactual exercises. For this purpose, a stylized spatial macroeconomic model as postulated by Desmet and Rossi-Hansberg (2013) is utilized. In the model households make consumption, investment, work and location choices by assessing three region-specific characteristics, namely regional productivity levels, amenities and excessive frictions. The counterfactual exercises, which involve eliminating one or more of the differences in characteristics across regions, result in modest increases in welfare (about 1%-2%), but large population reallocations across regions.
Sequential tasks and moral hazard
A principal owns a two-stage project consisting of two tasks with a finish-to-start dependency where there exists an outcome externality between these tasks. A success in the first task may affect the probability of success of the second task in a positive or negative way, which refers to synergistic and conflicting tasks, respectively. We analyze the optimal incentive schemes where both the number of agents and the order of the tasks are endogenous. We find that, regardless of the optimal set of agents, when both tasks are synergistic, the task with the greater impact is delegated first, while when tasks are conflicting, the one with the lower impact is scheduled first. When one task is synergistic and the other one is conflicting, the principal prefers the synergistic task to be completed first. When the task order is endogenously determined, the principal prefers to employ two identical agents for two different tasks when the tasks are synergistic and a single agent for two tasks when both tasks are conflicting. Since the task allocation is endogenous, we let one task to be synergistic and the other one to be conflicting, in which case it is optimal for the principal to hire two different agents. These results are robust to a possible wage payment after the completion of each task.
Multidimensional poverty in forced displacement: A comparison of Syrian and native households in Turkey
This study addresses the limitations of traditional measures of poverty that focus solely on income or consumption expenditure and instead adopts a multidimensional approach inspired by Amartya Sen's capabilities perspective. Combining various statistical approaches with normative considerations, a multidimensional poverty index (MPI) is constructed for Syrian refugees in Turkey, a context that has received relatively less attention in the literature compared to other host countries. Using the Turkey Demographic and Health Survey (TDHS) 2018, the study examines and compares the diverse deprivations faced by displaced and non-displaced households. A dimension on financial security is incorporated in addition to three standard dimensions used in the literature (education, health, and living standards). The analysis reveals significant disparities, with Syrian households experiencing a seven times higher incidence of multidimensional poverty compared to native Turkish households. The overall MPI score for the refugee community is 33 percentage points higher than the host community. Particularly, informal employment emerges as a nationwide issue. The findings contribute to the understanding of the well-being of Syrian refugees in Turkey and highlight the urgent need for targeted policies and interventions to address the simultaneous deprivations they face.
Suç ekonomisi içinde kara paranın yeri ve ekonomi üzerine etkileri
Suç ekonomisi, her türlü gayri meşru (yasa dışı) yoldan elde edilen ancak ekonomik bir faaliyet sonucu oluşan bir değer olup ekonomik bir takım sebep sonuç ilişkilerini bünyesinde barındırmaktadır. Suç ekonomisinin konusunu oluşturan yasa dışı faaliyetlerden elde edilen ve kara para olarak adlandırılan gelirler ise günümüzde göz ardı edilemez miktarda ekonomilerde yer almaktadır. Ancak bu gelirler yasal yollardan ülke ekonomilerine dâhil olmadıklarından, ekonomiler açısından sürdürülebilir bir girdi kalemi olamayacağı gibi yeni ekonomik sorunları ve hukuk ihlallerini beraberinde getirecek sorun alanı oluşturacaktır. Bu bakımdan kara para konusunun irdelenmesi sürdürülebilir bir iktisadi büyüme ve kalkınma açısından önem arz etmektedir. Bu tez çalışmasında; suç, suç ekonomisi, suç ekonomisinin yaşam alanı izah edilerek bu ekonomide oluşan kara paranın tanım ve teorik çerçevesi belirlenmiş, kara para aklama yöntemleri, kara paranın ekonomi üzerindeki etkileri makroekonomik göstergeler üzerinden açıklanarak kara paranın sürdürülebilir bir ekonomileri açısından olumsuz etkilere neden olduğunu açıklamak hedeflenmiştir. Çalışmada teorik ve resmi bilgiler kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın birinci bölümünde suç, suç ekonomisi, suç ekonomisinin kaynakları izah edilmiş; ikinci bölümde suç ekonomisi içinde kara para tanımı, kaynakları, aklama yöntemleri, yasal mevzuattaki durumu üzerinde durulmuş ve çalışmanın üçüncü bölümünde ise kara paranın ekonomi üzerindeki etkileri ve kara parayla mücadele yöntemleri açıklanmıştır. Çalışma, ulaşılan sonuçlar, bu sonuçlara bağlı değerlendirmeler ve kara parayla mücadeleye yönelik öneriler ile neticelendirilmiştir.
Taxation of financial instruments in Turkey
ABSTRACT The content of financial markets, their kinds, characteristics, operation of financial system, and the taxation of financial markets are complicated in Turkey, the positions of financial organizations in a financial system and their individual characteristics are explained and their taxation process is described in this thesis by using tables and graphs. Financial institutions and their place in financial system are explained. Financial institution are considered as direct tax payers. Also investment funds, investment trust, individual retirement funds and insurance companies, from this point of view, are discussed. This is how the financial system operates; The ones who make the financial transaction are subjected to taxation The tax load imposed on the financial earnings acquired by means of the financial instruments may either encourage or deter the persons who both demand and supply such financial instruments. In this thesis, compared to the banking sector financial investment market is not yet developed because of tax and interventing party costs and other complex issues. Other dilemna can be named as transperancy, market discipline, company and investor know-how that can be solved in the long run. In Turkey, as of now, investors that come to Stock Exchange Bureau have no purpose of becoming a partner or receiving dividends of that company. Furthermore, companies in Stock Exchange Bureau have no intention to create an atmosphere for them. So it should not be expected for Stock Market to grove and improve only bu speculative trade of shares. On the other hand, it is vitally important to collect taxes from income and gains that are obtained from financial instruments of national and international flow of funds. That is why in Turkey, many exemptions are applied to tax collection. Besides not having enough savings and not using them effectively in productive areas budget deficit are inevitable. In Turkey, due to the administrative, legal, political and economic risks, the issue of taxation of financial income and gains is highly important. In contrast, in recent years, implemented structural reforms and regulations to join into the European Union have caused serious expectations on reducing these risks. Insufficient accumulation of capital, undeepened financial markets and weak financial instruments. Increases of tax load collected from properties and services ruins the price mechanism Thus, altough there are increasing indirect tax rates, it has never been possible to collect more tax in totals just because of tax base narrowed. This is why the conclusion ve attained from the regression formula certififes the interpretation of this thesis. vx
An exploratory study on development and application of integrated customer loyalty management model (iclmm) -the case of a bank
AN EXPLORATORY STUDY ON DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OFINTEGRATED CUSTOMER LOYALTY MANAGEMENT MODEL (ICLMM)THE CASE OF A BANKbyHülya Gürsözer BÜYÜK SKENDERABSTRACTIn the 21st century, the importance of customer?s share is taking place in the market. Mostcompanies mention that their organizations are customer-centric organizations. Theycontinue; ?Our customers are important to us.? ?Our product designs are formed according toour customer needs and wants.? etc. but few companies fulfill this organizational modelperfectly.The aim of this thesis study is to reveal ?what the Bank is supposed to offer? and ?theperceived service level offered to the customers in this Bank? and to determine if a gap existsbetween the view of the employees and the perception of customers.In this research, the survey technique was used. For this thesis study, 2 field studies weredone. One of them is the ?Integrated Customer Loyalty Management Model? (ICLMM)survey; the other is ?e-banking Customer Loyalty? survey. All questions for both ICLMM ande-banking customer surveys were classified by three experts. The field study results wereanalyzed and interpreted by using SPSS tool.In the ICLMM field study, the Bank?s employees evaluated the bank?s vision, mission, workprocesses, e-banking processes, human resources etc. This survey has 119 questions, 113employees answered. (50% Head Office employees, 50% branch employees) The aim of thissurvey is to understand the management capabilities, loyalty management and the e-bankingprocesses of this Bank.In the e-banking customer loyalty field study, e-banking processes evaluation of this Bankwas done by e-banking users. This survey has 92 questions, 140 users answered. The aim ofthis survey is to understand how customers perceive e-banking services given by this Bank.At the end of this field study, all customers? answers revealed how they perceive the Bank?smanagement capabilities about e-banking.Finally, the 2 survey results were compared and they revealed that the evaluation byemployees and the perception by users were almost the same and there is no big gap.
Türkiye'de bölgesel temelde çevre kalitesinin belirleyicileri
This PhD thesis explores the intricate relationship between economic growth and environmental sustainability, emphasizing the indispensable role of the environment in sustaining economic activities in Turkey. Central to the investigation is the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, which posits an inverse U-shaped relationship between per capita income and environmental degradation. The study extends its focus to the Turkish context, bridging theory with empirical evidence and emphasizing the unique dynamics of the nation's international trade relations. Empirical results highlight the phenomenon of carbon leakage, indicating that developed countries transfer pollution-intensive production to Turkey, while Turkey reciprocates in trade with certain regions. The lack of environmental policies in Turkey's economic relations raises critical implications for future research, emphasizing the need to scrutinize the impact of foreign trade on environmental degradation. In conclusion, this research contributes to the ongoing discourse on sustainable development by providing a nuanced understanding of the interplay between economic growth and environmental stewardship. The research's novelty lies in its depth of analysis on specific variables and regional focus, offering practical insights for policymakers, scholars, and concerned citizens grappling with the challenge of balancing economic development with environmental responsibility.