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The role of monetary policy in controlling the rate of inflation in Iraq (2004 - 2020)
This dissertation demonstrated the part of monetary policy in regulating the inflation rate in Iraq. To attain this purpose, a modeling technique of the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) approach has been used, and Monthly information has been collected for the period (31/12/2004 to 31/7/2020). Hence, the outcome of the unit root test for stationary implies that the inflation rate is stable at the level, and other variables are stable at the initial alteration. However, the Johansen Co-integration Test result reveals the relationships between the inflation rate and all changes for the far future. Moreover, the Granger causality outcome shows two-direction causality among narrow money supply and exchange rate granger causes inflation rate. Unidirectional granger connection between inflation rate granger causes board money supply as well as the interest rate. Finally, the outcome of the (ARDL) model reveals that the money supply, as well as exchange rate, is significant and favorably linked to inflation. The conclusion is that a rise in the money supply and exchange rate causes Iraq to experience severe inflation. The interest rate has an essential and contradictory association with the interest rate as well as the inflation rate in Iraq. It specifies that a rise in the interest rate causes a reduced inflation rate in Iraq.
Merkez Bankası bağımsızlığı ve politikaları neticesinde ekonomik büyüme (Türkiye örneği)
1980'li yıllardan itibaren gündem bulan merkez bankası bağımsızlığı, üzerine henüz araştırmaların devam ettiği yeni bir çalışma alanıdır. Zaman tutarsızlığı ve hoş olmayan monetarist görüş gibi temellere dayandırılan bağımsızlık kavramı, bankanın hükümetten bağımsız hareket edebilmesi, aynı şekilde nihai hedeflerini belirlemesi anlamına gelmektedir. Bu durum merkez bankası otoritesinin enflasyonist karşıtı olması sonucunu ortaya çıkarmıştır. Bu çalışmada, merkez bankası bağımsızlık süreci, bu süreci belirleyen etkilerin teorik altyapısı incelenmiştir. Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası bağımsızlığının enflasyon, üretim, bütçe açığı ve büyüme oranı üzerine etkisi incelenerek ülke ekonomisine etkisi açıklanmıştır.
Gelı̇şmı̇ş ve gelı̇şmekte olan ülkelerde ı̇şgücü pı̇yasası dı̇namı̇klerı̇
ABSTRACT The primary goal of this study is to analyze labor market dynamics in both developed and developing countries using a search and matching model. To estimate the duration dependence parameter and matching function for both types of countries, we employed panel data and OLS techniques. For developed countries, the duration dependence results show that the coefficient for unemployment duration is negative and statistically significant. Additionally, the matching function results indicate that the job vacancy rate coefficient is positive but not statistically significant, while the unemployment rate coefficient is negative and highly significant. The matching function outcomes suggest that in Turkey and China, unemployment coefficients are negative and not statistically significant. However, job vacancies positively influence matches and are statistically significant. In Chile, the unemployment coefficient is positive and statistically significant. Although the job vacancy rate also has a positive effect, this effect was not statistically confirmed. For Costa Rica, the unemployment coefficient is positive but not significant, while the job vacancy rate coefficient is positive and statistically significant. In Korea, both the unemployment and job vacancy rate coefficients are positive and statistically significant. These findings enhance understanding of the resilience and transitions of the labor market before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic. They offer valuable insights for policymakers on designing labor market recovery strategies that address vacancies, unemployment durations, and employment transitions. Keywords: Search and matching theory, Job finding rate, Labor market flows, Covid-19 crisis, Developed and developing countries.
Ürün ambalaj renklerinin satin alma niyeti üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye ve Kazakistan'dan örnegi
Behavioral economics has emerged as one of the most significant advancements in economic thought over the past few decades. Unlike traditional economic models that assume people always make rational decisions, behavioral economics recognizes that human choices are often influenced by cognitive biases, emotions, and mental shortcuts. This study examines how packaging color affects consumer purchasing decisions, by presenting the same products in different color schemes, showing how color acts not only as a framing device but also as a behavioral nudge, revealing how cultural and generational differences shape consumer perception through key principles of behavioral economics. It focuses on how warm colors are often linked to indulgence and impulsive choices, known as vice, and cool colors, usually connected to self-control and healthier options, known as virtue, influence how consumers respond to packaging and marketing. Using an experimental method, data was collected through surveys from people of various ages, income levels, and educational backgrounds in both Türkiye and Kazakhstan. Keywords: behavioral economics, consumer behavior, packaging color, cognitive bias, nudging, decision-making, cross-cultural study, experiment, Türkiye, Kazakhstan
Ülkeler arasında mali sürtünmeler, toplam verimlilik farklılıkları ve gelir dağılımı
This essay analyses the effect of credit frictions on capital misallocation, aggregate output, productivity, and income divergencies between countries. The essay is composed of five chapters that analyse how credit misallocation from financial frictions impact cross-country income differences. The first chapter identifies the key sources of financial frictions and demonstrates how frictions embedded in the intermediation process generate capital misallocation by driving wedges between savings and credit, investment, inputs and outputs, allocation of entrepreneurial talent, and occupational choices. In chapter two, I review the broad evidence on credit market frictions on GDP and cross-country income distribution. I then locate the specific causal channels and the key underlying mechanisms through which these frictions affect resource allocation and economic development. The third section presents a standard model of development with incomplete financial markets characterised by frictions to capture and quantitatively evaluate the impact of financial impediments on total output, aggregate productivity, and income differences between countries. The model presented in this section is of an economy with a dual financial scheme: a credit and savings regime. The households or firms with sufficient savings or wealth endowments become entrepreneurs, while those without adequate savings and capital choose to become wage earners by supplying labour or exiting the market. Talented households without savings can decide to become entrepreneurs by borrowing but must posit collateral thus, the size of the loan is dependent on the collateral value. Collateral thus, act as a borrowing constraint. The study emphasises frictions originating from – borrowing constraints (collateral), participation costs, and intermediation costs. Chapter four presents the findings. The main conclusion drawn from this essay is that there is a robust connection between financial frictions, credit misallocation, aggregate output losses, lower TFP, and economic underdevelopment. These results confirm the evidence that financial frictions amplify and perpetuate the persistence of income variations between countries. The main idea presented in the model is that financial frictions inhibit some establishments from hiring inputs to adopting modern technologies and accessing credit for investment which lower TFP and amplify income gaps. The estimates show large income and TFP losses exceeding 30% of GDP within countries with underdeveloped financial markets indicating that a move to the frontier of financial development by poor countries with underdeveloped financial markets could increase productivity, income, and GDP significantly. These estimates broadly mirror recent empirical findings observed in the literature on financing frictions and cross-country income gaps. In the absence of financial frictions, TFP and output loss would reduce significantly to about 5% due to efficiency gains.
Coğrafya ve ticaret üzerine üç makale
Economic activity is unevenly distributed across physical space, influenced by the location, climate, and natural resources of a region. This dissertation contributes to the field of economic geography and quantitative spatial modeling through three essays that address key gaps in the literature. The first chapter examines the impact of local markets for non-tradable inputs on urban land prices. By using disaggregated spatial data and a two-stage estimation approach with market access as an instrumental variable, I find that districts with 1% more housing used by professional businesses have land prices that are 0.59% higher on average. This estimate increases to 1.24% when adjusted for potential endogeneity, and with robustness confirmed through alternative market access definitions. The second chapter estimates trade elasticity for Turkish exports at the product level. Utilizing detailed data on import tariffs and trade flows, I analyze the effects of tariff variations on trade flows. The median trade elasticity estimate is -4.48, with differences observed between homogeneous and differentiated goods, as well as between consumption, capital, and intermediate goods. The calculated Turkish welfare gains from trade are 19.8% using a homogeneous aggregate trade elasticity, increasing to 23.8% with heterogeneous trade elasticities in a multi-sector trade model. The third chapter investigates the effects of Turkey's large infrastructure development program (2005-2015) on the size dispersion within local industries. Improved infrastructure, measured by travel time savings, decreases size dispersion by enhancing access to potential suppliers. This effect reduces trade costs and allows smaller firms to access cheaper inputs. No evidence of pro-competitive pressure affecting size dispersion was found. Overall, this dissertation advances our understanding of urban economic outcomes, international trade, and domestic trade by addressing significant gaps in economic geography and spatial modeling literature.
ABD para politikalarının gelişmekte olan ülkelere yayılma etkileri
This study investigates how the spillover effects of U.S. monetary policy tightenings on emerging markets have evolved over time, specifically examining the changes in the magnitude of these effects. The analysis focuses on the tightening periods of 1994, 2004, 2015, and 2022, utilizing a four-variable Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model with stochastic volatility. The findings reveal apparent differences in both the magnitude of the impacts and the dominant channels across time and countries. In particular, exchange rate and real economy responses vary depending on each country's specific periods and structural vulnerabilities. Overall, the results show that the spillover effects of U.S. monetary policy shocks have not weakened uniformly over time; instead, they have differed depending on the nature of the shocks, global financial conditions, and domestic dynamics of the countries.
Faydanın yarı aktarılabilir olduğu durumlarda işbirlikli davranışın incelenmesi
The primary purpose of this study is to analyze both cooperative and noncooperative games under semitransferable utility. In game theory literature, utility seems so far to have been assumed not to be transferable at all in noncooperative games, while both fully transferable and nontransferable utility are considered in the context of cooperative games. There are, however, an abundance of real life situations, where utility is partially transferable. Here we introduce the notion of semitransferable utility, which encompasses full-transferability and nontransferability as its two extreme special subcases. We explore and exemplify what changes some well-known equilibrium notions undergo when one allows utility to be only partially transferable. In particular, we relate core allocations in a convex cooperative transferable utility (TU) game to their counterparts in a corresponding strategic context, to show that, for each core allocation of a given TU game, there is a strategic form game, where that allocation survives, while almost all other allocations are eliminated.
Oda arkadaşı problemi için kararlı kuralların uzantıları üzerine bir çalışma
Roommate problems might not have a stable solution. But for such problems we are still faced with the problem of matching the agents. One natural approach would be to match the agents in such a way that the resulting matching is "close" to being stable. Such solution concepts should select stable matchings when they exist and select matchings "close" to being stable when the problem does not have any stable matchings. We work with the following solution concepts, Almost Stability, Maximum Irreversibility, Maximum Internal Stability, P-stability and Q-stability, and define a new solution concept, called Iterated P-stability. We investigate consistency, population monotonicity, competition sensitivity and resource sensitivity of these solution concepts. We also explore Maskin monotonicity of these solution concepts.
Bir nash pazarlık oyununda Kantiyen dengeler
This thesis studies Kantian equilibria (Roemer, 2010) of an n-player bargaining game, which is a modified version of the well-known divide-the-dollar game. It starts with introducing the fundamental concepts of Kantian morality and how Kantian moral theory is captured in economic theory. Then, we first show that the Kantian equilibrium exists under fairly minimal assumptions. Second, if the bankruptcy rule used satisfies equal treatment of equals, and is almost nowhere proportional, then only equal division can prevail in any Kantian equilibrium. On the other hand, we show that an 'anything goes' type result emerges only under the proportional rule. Furthermore, using hybrid bankruptcy rules that we construct in a novel fashion, we can characterize the whole equilibrium set. Lastly, we analyse what happens to the equilibrium behavior and the axiomatic properties of the bankruptcy rules under the additive definition of Kantian equilibrium. Our results highlight the interactions between institutions (axiomatic properties of division rules) and agents' equilibrium behavior.
Ülke içinde yerinden edilme kadınların beşeri sermaye birikimi üzerinde bir yük müdür? Türkiye'den kanıtlar
Over the last 35 years, Turkey has been fighting with an outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in East and Southeast Anatolia. The increasingly fierce struggle from the mid-80s to the late 90s led to thousands of internally displaced people. Using Turkey Demographic Health Survey, we define displaced women as those who migrated for security reasons from conflict regions between 1984-99 to understand the long-term impact of forced migration on the educational attainment of displaced women. Our results show that internal displacement decreases years of schooling by one year, and the detrimental effect mainly stems from the reduced level of primary and secondary school completion. We also investigate the mechanisms through which internal displacement affects educational outcomes and show that internal displacement increased the probability of working before the age of 15. We also find evidence that internal displacement decreased marriage age and increased the possibility of being in a forced marriage.
Suriyeli mültecilerin Türkiye'deki çocuk işçiliğine etkileri
During the last decade, nearly 3.7 million Syrian found refuge in Turkey, making it the largest refugee host country in the world. Different from other refugee-hosting countries, almost all the refugees live in urban areas, which makes it easier for them to benefit from social and economic opportunities. This paper analyzes the impact of Syrian refugees on young (15-17 years) native's labor market outcomes using Turkish Household Labor Force Surveys from 2004-2018. We employ a difference-in-difference IV methodology, using the variation in refugees to native ratio and a distance instrument. We find a positive effect on native boys' employment and no effect on native girls. In addition, there is no effect on child labor and working hours for both males and females, while there is a positive effect on boys' labor force participation only. Controlling for the heterogeneity of refugee's effect using household head education level, we find a positive effect on native boy's employment and labor force participation when the household head is less educated.
Zenginlik-boş zaman bağıntısının dinamik sonuçları
This thesis analyses a one-sector optimal growth model in which wealth affects the utility obtained from leisure. We consider that an increase in wealth increases the propensity to consume leisure goods and services and hence affects how the instantaneous utility depends on leisure time. We prove the existence of the optimal path and characterize the dynamics and the properties of equilibria. We provide the conditions under which the model has unique or multiple steady states. The intensity of wealth in the utility obtained from leisure and the output elasticity of physical capital play an important role in the number of steady states and in the monotonicity of the optimal path of physical capital. We find that the optimal path of physical capital is monotonic and converges to the unique steady state, provided that the output elasticity of capital is higher than the intensity of wealth in the utility obtained from leisure.
İşletme sermayesi kanalının para politikası aktarımına etkileri
This thesis examines the effects of the working capital channel on monetary policy transmission under a two-sector new Keynesian model, where one of the sectors has working capital requirements. The model follows the framework presented by Woodford (2003). Introducing working capital into the model brings about two additional monetary policy transmission channels: the working capital channel and the substitution channel, relative to the standard new Keynesian model. The working capital channel reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy in stabilizing inflation within the model while also increasing the sensitivity of the output gap to monetary policy. Simultaneously, the substitution channel helps mitigate the impact of working capital on aggregate inflation. Moreover, the presence of the working capital channel gives rise to the distributional effects of monetary policy on the economy. The substitution channel exacerbates the adverse effect of contractionary policy on firms with working capital requirements, whereas expansionary monetary policy leads to a higher demand for the goods produced by these firms.
Model belirlenmesi amacında kullanılan bilgisayar yoğunluklu teknikler
ABSTRACT COMPUTER INTENSIVE TECHNIQUES FOR MODEL SELECTION SIDIKA BAŞÇI Ph.D Thesis in Economics Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Asad Zaman May 1998 There are three essays in this dissertation. In the first one, which appears in Chapter 2, a comparison of finite sample performances of six model selection crite ria for Autoregressive (AR) processes exists. Simulation results report the effects of being parsimonious while selecting the model on forecasting. Moreover, in the chap ter the assumption of normality, which can be seen in all of the previous theoretical and emprical studies, is relaxed and performances of the criteria under non-normal distributions are investigated. The second essay is presented in Chapter 3. In this essay three new model selection criteria are suggested where cross-validated esti mates of variances are used. In the chapter, a comparison of the finite sample performances of these new criteria with the already existing ones is presented. The main concern of the third essay, that appears in Chapter 4, is detecting structural change when the change point is unknown. In the chapter, we derive some Bayesian tests to detect structural change with unknown change point under the assumptions of different prior distributions. Key Words: Model selection, autoregressive processes, lag order determination, forecasting, cross-validation, structural change, unknown change point, Bayesian approach. m
Talebe dayalı varlık paylaşım problemlerinde Nash dengeleri
Estate division game is an allocation of an estate between players based on a rule. In this thesis, we consider estate division games and study the necessary and sufficient conditions for division rules under which Nash equilibria induce equal division. Ashlagi, Karag özo ğlu, Klaus (2012) introduce classes of properties for division rules and show that they are sufficient for all Nash equilibria to induce equal division. In this study, we propose a different property, namely conditional full compensation, and prove that it is also a sufficient condition for division rules in order for all Nash equilibria outcomes under these rules to be equal division. We, then, show that under any rule satisfying claims boundedness and conditional equal division lower bound, equal division is a Nash equilibrium outcome. Finally, we prove that letting at least one player get more than the difference between the whole estate and the sum of other players' claims is a necessary condition for all Nash equilibria to induce equal division. Keywords : Estate division game, division rule, Nash equilibrium, equal division.
Epsilon Bayezyen uygulama
We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for epsilon-Bayesian Implementation. Results of Jackson (1991) are extended upon the environments where the agents has some level of bounded rationality. Yet, his necessity condition, Bayesian Monotonicity is not nested with our necessity condition, epsilon-Bayesian Monotonicity.
Referans noktalarının adalet kararları üzerindeki etkileri
In this study, we empirically investigate the effects of reference points on fairness judgments with the help of the vignette technique. Specifically, we examine (i) whether reference points have influence on fairness judgments or not, (ii) if and how counter-intuitive reference points influence fairness judgments, and (iii) how the asymmetry of reference points shape fairness judgments. For that purpose, we use a within-subject design, in which participants are confronted with three versions of vignette: vignettes without reference point, vignettes with salient reference point, and vignettes with counter-intuitive reference point. Consequently, our findings suggest that (i) the reference points significantly influence fairness judgments, (ii) introducing counter-intuitive reference points moderate the salience of reference points, and (iii) the asymmetry of salient reference points has a concave relationship with fairness judgments, while the asymmetry of counter-intuitive reference points does not affect fairness judgments.
Büyük ticaret çöküşü sırasında kompozisyon etkisi üzerine bir analiz
This thesis focuses on one of the famous hypotheses on The Great Trade Collapse which is compositional effect hypothesis. It includes three different parts. The first part examines the method of Levchenko, Lewis, Tesar (2010) for testing compositional effect, attempts to reproduce the results and conducts some robustness analysis of their results. The second part suggests some modifications on the existing model and applies the newly modified model to the US data. The findings suggest that compositional effect is an important factor of the US trade collapse during the The Great Recession. In the last part, the new model is applied to Turkey and the findings show that the compositional effect is not a significant factor of the trade reduction in Turkey. This result could be an indicator which shows that trade of the emerging countries are not governed by the same factors that drive developed country trade falls during the recent economic crisis.
Kurlar, makroekonomik temel göstergeler ve dış ticaret üzerine bir tez
This dissertation is made up of three essays on understanding the exchange rate movements and the link between the exchange rate and the real economy. In the first essay, exchange rate movements are decomposed into two components that are driven by the observable fundamentals and the unobservable factors in the economy with different statistical methods. Then, these methods results are compared in a reduce form equation in a panel setting that enables us to understand the economic sense behind these decomposition techniques. From this analysis, Christiano and Fitzgerald Filter (C-F Filter) (2003) is selected as the method that decomposes real exchange rate into permanent and temporary components which are respectively components that capture the fundamentals and unobservables. In the second essay the Meese and Rogoff puzzle is analyzed through testing the scapegoat theory of exchange rate. Scapegoat theory of exchange rate claims that when exchange rate changes due to an unobserved factor, to rationalize this movement, agents give more weight to a fundamental that reveals a large variation from its mean which creates an exchange rate movement in the expected direction. This part presents an empirical test of the scapegoat theory of exchange rate using Turkish data. It is found that there exists a strong and robust empirical support for the scapegoat theory of exchange rate. Of all the fundamentals, between 2003-2013 market participants have viewed the current account as the scapegoat; the current account variable and its scapegoat incidences have the statistically significant and theoretically expected effect on nominal spot exchange rate return. Finally in the last essay making use of the decomposed exchange rate series the impact of exchange rate on bilateral trade flows is empirically analyzed using the Gravity Model in a panel setting. The estimation is done for using aggregate bilateral trade data. From this analysis we conclude that the impact of currency depreciation on trade flows depends on whether that change in the exchange rate reflects a shift in trend or is just a transitory movement.
Türkiyede teknoloji geliştirme bölgelerinin inovasyon üzerindeki etkisi
This study focuses on the impact of Technology Development Areas (TDAs) on innovation activity in Turkey. Importance of TDAs arises from their role in promoting innovation through encouraging creation and development of knowledge-based businesses. Also, TDA environment helps participating firms by enabling technology and knowledge transfer between firms in TDA and between firms and universities. These are the main reasons why TDAs have been a popular policy regulation for innovation. However, their impact on innovation has been a controversial research area that presents mixed results. This study sheds more light on this issue by estimating the impact of being located in TDA on the innovation outcomes; completed Research and Development (R&D) projects, sold and developed products and registered patents by the firms. The estimations are based on the Turkish data for TDAs, which are taken from the "2012 Impact Evaluation Survey for Technology Development Areas" that is performed by Turkish Ministry of Science, Industry and Technology. This study is the first academic work that uses this survey. It is found that being in TDA increases the number of completed R&D projects by 0.16-0.4 units. TDAs have a negative and insignificant impact on number of sold R&D products and developed R&D products of firms. The analysis shows that being in TDA decreases the number of patents registered, by 0.1 units. TDAs have other incentives for the firms in terms of firm performance. I estimate the impact of being in TDA on firm performance using sales as a performance measure. Entering a TDA is found to decrease sales by 31%.
Türkiye üniversite reformu'nun yüksek öğrenim'deki cinsiyet ayrımı üzerine etkileri
This paper analyzes the effects of a university reform on gender gap in higher education. It explores the university reform in Turkey over the past years as a natural experiment. The university reform has two important features, extending the coverage zone of the universities by constructing universities in every province, and increasing the capacity of the existing universities. The main purpose of this reform is to increase accession to higher education and raising qualified employees. This paper focuses on another outcome of this reform; it examines the impacts of the expansion of the number and capacity of the universities in order to eliminate the barriers on the gender gap in higher education in Turkey. In order to conduct this research, the panel data is constructed where the unit of observation is at the province level for the period 2007-2013.
Hayır kuruluşlarına bağış ve yaşam memnuniyeti
In this thesis, the empirical link between individuals donations` to charitable organizations and their levels of life satisfaction is analysed, and the warm glow motive is tested in this context. Using a national representative data from US, I observed that there is a positive correlation between reported life satisfaction and individuals acts of giving. First, I found that individuals who donate to charitable organizations report a higher level of life satisfaction. Second, I found that individuals` reported life satisfaction levels are proportional to their amount of contribution to public goods. Consistent with the warm-glow motive, the life satisfaction level depends individuals` own the act of giving and their amount of donation. Third, by using instrumental variables techniques and selection on observed and unobserved variables method, the causal relation between the act of donation and individuals` reported well-being is shown. Fourth, it is observed that the act of giving a cts the individuals` subjective well-being with regard to which type of organization they donate to. In this regard, the relation between donation to secular and non-secular charitable organizations and subjective well-being is examined. Keywords: Impure altruism model, warm-glow, life satisfaction, donation, instrumental variables technique, selection on observable and unobservable variables, causal relation.
Beklenti kuramı fayda fonksiyonunun ardışık kuşaklar modeli üzerine dinamik etkileri
This thesis studies an overlapping generations model in the presence of prospect theory which has scarcely been addressed in macroeconomic growth models. The set up in this thesis provides us a unique steady state with global convergence and multiple steady states with local convergence. The presence of prospect preferences in the utility form leads to the multiplicity even under convex technology. Numerical analysis supports us that cross country income divergence can also be explained by a mechanism in which preference component is altered.
NAFTA sonrası dönemde A.B.D. ithalatı ve ithalatın karbon dioksit içeriği: Sektörel analiz
This thesis examines the changes in the carbon dioxide content of international trade following a multilateral free trade agreement. In this study, the focus is centered on the effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement on the U.S. import flows and the carbon dioxide content of U.S. imports with its major trade partners. In the light of the recent decline in the carbon dioxide emissions generated by the U.S. manufacturing industry, we analyze the value and the carbon content of the U.S. imports from its NAFTA and non-NAFTA importing partners for the implementation period of NAFTA. Using a gravity model of international trade, U.S. imports and carbon dioxide content of U.S. imports are examined for the post-NAFTA period, i.e. 1995-2010, within a panel data framework. With the sectoral trade data and input-output analysis, the direct and indirect carbon dioxide content of trade is computed for the disaggregated imports of U.S. from its NAFTA and non-NAFTA trade partners. The carbon dioxide content of imports is calculated by using the sectoral data of direct carbon dioxide emission coefficients, Leontief inverse matrices and real trade data at a sectoral level. The estimation results indicate that, both the value and the carbon dioxide content of the U.S. imports from NAFTA partners are significantly greater compared to the value and the carbon dioxide content of the U.S. imports from other major non-NAFTA U.S. importing partners within the period 1995-2010.
2008 istihdam reform paketinin sektorlerdeki enformel istihdama etkisi
This thesis estimates the impact of 2008 Turkish Employment Subsidy Program which was enacted after the 2008 crisis to create formal employment opportunities in each main sector for females and young males who are regarded disadvantaged group. The design of the subsidy program is similar to a natural experiment in which women and young men are defined as treatment groups. The impact of the program is analyzed by using differences-in-difference method and utilizing the data of Turkish Household Labor Force Survey. Estimation results show that the program looks effective in decreasing informal employment in each sector. However, after excluding the certain age groups from the data due to heterogeneity problems; while it still remains effective in decreasing the informal employment for the industrial sector, it disappears for agricultural and services sectors.
Aczi takip eden imkanlar üzerine bir oyun modeli
This thesis utilizes the game theory literature with asymmetric information to model post-insolvency options of the indebted firm. We center the study on Turkish bankruptcy system and compare the system to an alternative state, which is namely the Benchmark state. In the first state, the indebted firm has three options: Liquidation, Reorganization, and Adjournment of Bankruptcy; while the last option, which is unique to Turkish system, is not available in the latter. These two systems are compared in terms of resulting welfare of the creditor. The comparison indicates that the Benchmark state generally serves better to creditor. However, in certain cases this relation is reversed and effects of the changes in model parameters in these two states are different.
Türkiye devlet tahvili getilerinin vade yapısındaki vade primi hesaplanması
In this thesis, the Turkish Treasury yield curve is estimated by the Nelson-Siegel- Svensson method between January 2010 and December 2016 in daily frequency. Interest rates taken from estimated yield curves can be used as benchmark rates to determine the present value of any future cash flow. The main goal of this study is to measure expected future of interest rates and the term premium. After the yield curves are estimated, a multifactor no-arbitrage affine term structure model is used to decompose the yield curve to its term premium and future expected interest rate components.
Mali kısıtlar altında para politikası
ABSTRACT MONETARY POLICY WITH A FISCAL CONSTRAINT Özcan, Sait Sinan M.A., Department of Economics Supervisor: Asst. Prof. Dr. Ümit Özlale September 2004 The theme of fiscal dominance on monetary policy is an old issue. Basically, in an environment of high debt and high risk premium, inflation targeting does not work well. Higher interest rates lead to higher debt, a higher risk premium, a depreciation, and so, to a higher inflation. In this study, we analyze the influence of fiscal constraints on pursuing monetary policy from the perspective of the risk premium. We use the monthly data of the last three years of the Turkish economy. We obtain the feedback rules for the interest rates by minimizing the loss functions, which include inflation, output gap, and interest rate smoothing as the goal variables. According to the rule obtained under weak fiscal conditions, we observe the negative response of interest rate to inflation, which is the opposite of the rule obtained in absence of high risk premium and debt burden. m
Ağ çekirdekleri ve dışbükeylik üzerine bazı gözlemler
In this study, we analyze the relationships between the value function - allocation rule setting and the TU game setting induced by value functions. As several different value functions may induce the same TU game, there is some information lost when passing to the TU game setting. We inquire in this study the impact of this lost information upon the preservation of the nonemptiness of the core when we pass from the network to the TU game setting. We pass from a value function to a TU game by associating with each coalition the maximal value of the graphs this coalition can form under the given value function. Conversely, we may associate with each TU game one of the value functions that induce the given TU game. Keeping this fixed, we define the network core as the collection of graphs where no coalition has an incentive to change the cooperation structure in itself, assuming that the rest of the society consists of isolated agents. Besides, we define convexity in the value function setting in an manalogous fashion to convexity for the TU games. As convexity implies the nonemptiness of the core in both settings (a well-known result in the TU setting, and a trivial one in the value function setting), we inquire if convexity is preserved in passing from one setting to the other. We find that convexity of the value function is equivalent to a stronger type of convexity of the induced game. Keywords: value function, convexity, network core IV
Finansal, ekonomik, bankacılık sektörel ve kurumsal gelişim ve üretkenlik
ABSTRACT FINANCIAL, ECONOMIC, BANKING SECTOR AND INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND PRODUCTIVITY Özcan, Gökçe Masters of Arts, Department of Economics Supervisor: Fatma Taşkın November 2004 This thesis explores the links between Malmquist Productivity Index (and its two components, namely efficiency change and technological change) and the banking sector, economic, financial development and institutional variables. Re sults show that there is a positive link between the banking, economic and financial variables and the productivity indexes. Also, data show that cross-country dif ferences in legal and accounting systems play significant role in the improvement of the productivity indexes- Malmquist Index and its two components, efficiency change and technical change. Keywords: Productivity, Malmquist Index ui
Dışa açık bir ekonomide belirsizlikler ve şoklar altında para politikası uygulamaları üzerine beş makale
ABSTRACT FIVE ESSAYS ON MONETARY POLICY APPLICATIONS IN AN OPEN ECONOMY UNDER ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND SHOCKS Dinçer, Nazire Nergiz P.D., Department of Economics Supervisor: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Hakan Berument November 2004 In this dissertation, we analyzed the monetary policy applications under uncertainty and shocks and their effects on the economy. The uncertainties we concern are inflation uncertainty and exchange rate risk, whereas the shocks are the unexpected exchange rate shocks, change in parity and capital flights. The case study is Turkey, except the analysis on inflation uncertainty, which is on G-7 countries. The analyses on inflation uncertainty suggest that inflation increases inflation uncertainty for G-7 countries, whereas inflation uncertainty decreases inflation for four countries. Therefore, when uncertainty is high, the central bank reduces those real costs at the margin by reducing inflation. On the other hand, the effects of exchange rate risk are an increase in prices, a depreciation of the real exchange rate, and a decrease in the output. mIn the face of unexpected currency depreciation or appreciation, the economic activity decreases. The effects of an improvement in the USD-Euro parity on an open economy, where the denomination composition of trade is asymmetric is an appreciation of the real exchange rate, an increase in the relative income and an improvement in the trade balance. The empirical analyses on capital outflows suggest that growth decreases, inflation increases and exchange rate depreciates, which are critical negative signals for an economy. Overall this dissertation suggests that when designing a policy program, it is important to consider the possible deviations from the policies. Otherwise, it would not be possible to achieve the targets, moreover the costs would be too high for the economy. Keywords: Monetary policy, Uncertainty, Shocks IV
İktisadi yardımın enflasyon üzerindeki etkileri: Mali piyasadaki gelişimin rolü
This thesis investigates the relationship between foreign aid and inflationconsidering the effect of financial market development (FMD) on this relationship. Themain hypothesis is that aid has a significant positive impact on inflation. When thefinancial markets are developed enough, the upward effect of aid on inflation is expectedto be diminished. The dynamic relationship is analyzed utilizing generalized method ofmoments (GMM) estimation which accommodates the use of an unbalanced panel dataset, covering 60 countries in the period 1975-2004, where available. The results of theempirical analysis support the hypothesis. Furthermore, the results are robust to severalcontrol variables, and alternative measures of financial market development.Keywords: Aid, Inflation, Financial Market Development (FMD)
Tekli yapısal kırılma testinin verimli piyasa hipotezi üzerindeki ampirik çalışma ile performans analizi
In this thesis, performance of the single structural break tests is examined. Since ithas proved superiority of Sequential F test on other single break tests, it is chosen assingle break test. Monte Carlo simulation is run for different scenarios and performancesof the test with respect to estimating break points, and parameters, and rejecting oraccepting the joint null hypothesis is observed. For all cases small sample bias isobserved. The test estimates parameters correctly for large samples but for small samplesit underestimates or overestimates parameters. Another common problem is about jointnull hypothesis. When test rejects the joint null, it doesn?t identify which of the jointhypothesis is rejected. Therefore in this study, we utilize the t-statistic of the parametersto determine the individual hypothesis rejected. In addition to these common problemswe illustrate other scenario specific problems in this study. We examine the implicationsof our Monte Carlo findings by applying the break test to real life data and investigate theefficient market hypothesis using stock market data on SP&500. Application of thesequential F test shows evidence against the efficient market hypothesis.Keywords: Structural Break, Sequential F Test, Efficient Market Hypothesis
Uygulamalı makroekonomi hakkında çalışmalar
ABSTRACTESSAYS ON APPLIED MACROECONOMICSİnce, OnurMaster of EconomicsSupervisor: Asst. Prof. Ümit ÖzlaleJuly, 2005This study contains three studies, the relationship between FED intervention andemerging markets, the effect of S&P500 return on Istanbul Stock Exchange and theconnection between Turkish industrial production growth and the success of Beşiktaş. Thesecond chapter analyzes the effect of FED intervention on emerging markets with usingevent-study analysis. Considering Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBI) and grouping theeffect under five different categories, the effect of FED intervention on emerging markets areshown. The third chapter assesses the effect of S&P500 return on the Istanbul Stock Exchangewithin a dynamic framework. In order to capture the effect, we build a block recursive VARmodel allowing that S&P500 affects the ISE returns with its current and lag values but notvice versa. The estimates from daily data suggest that returns on S&P500 affect ISE returnpositively up to 4 days. The fourth chapter investigates the connection between Turkishindustrial production growth and the success of Beşiktaş, which is a popular Turkish soccerteam. The empirical evidence provided in the paper suggests that industrial production growthtends to increase with the success of Beşiktaş in European cups. Moreover, if the winnings arein displacement, the increase in industrial production is higher than if the winnings are in thehome field. On the other hand, findings on the effects of domestic games on industrialperformance are not statistically significant.Keywords: Block Recursive VAR, EMBI, Emerging Markets, Event Study Analysis,Industrial Production, Sports Economics
Finansal gelişme ve verimlilik panel veri analizi
Finansal gelişme ve büyüme ilişkisi literatürde sıkça incelenen bir konudur. Büyümenin temel kaynaklarından birinin verimlilik artışları olması sebebiyle bu çalışmada finansal gelişmenin verimliliğe olan katkısı araştırılmaktadır. Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerin verileri 1965 ve 1990 yılları arası panel analiz yapılarak incelenmiştir. Verimlilik artışları, Fare ve öbürleri (1994) tarafından tanımlanan Malmquist verimlilik değişimi indeksi ile ölçülmüştür. Birbirini izleyen iki yıl arasındaki verimliliği ölçen bu indeks etkinlik değişimi indeksi ve teknolojik değişim indeksi olarak iki bileşene ayrılabilir. Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Yöntemi teknikleri kullanılarak statik ve dinamik analizler çerçevesinde bulunan sonuçlar finansal gelişmenin hem Malmquist verimlilik değişimi indeksi üzerinde hem de bileşenlerinde olumlu bir etkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Finansal gelişme, Verimlilik
Uluslararası kredilerin gelişmekte olan ülkelerin gelir dağılımına etkisi: Bir panel veri analizi
Uluslararası krediler, gelişmekte olan ülkelerin büyüme stratejilerinin önemli bir parçasını oluşturmakta ve bu akımların etkinliğinin değerlendirilmesi söz konusu olduğunda bu kredilerin gelir dağılımıyla ilişkisinin incelenmesi özel bir önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışmada 63 ülke ve 1961-1996 dönemi için oluşturulan veri setini ve panel veri yöntemini kullanarak Dünya Bankası ve Uluslararası Para Fonu tarafından verilen kredileri de içerecek şekilde, uluslararası kredilerin gelişmekte olan ülkelerin gelir dağılımlarına etkisi ele aldık. Sonuçlarımız, örneklemimizdeki ülkeler için, Dünya Bankası tarafından verilen kredilerin gelir dağılımı eşitsizliğinde herhangi bir düzelmeye yol açmadığını göstermektedir. Öte yandan, Uluslararası Para Fonu'nun kaynaklık ettiği kredilerinse gelir dağılımında anlamlı bir iyileşmeye yol açtığını saptadık ve bu iyileşmenin geçiş ülkelerinde daha güçlü olduğunu gözlemledik. Bunların yanında, sonuçlarımız enflasyonun gelir dağılımını bozucu etkisini ortaya koymaktadır. Sonuçlarımız, ekonomik gelişmenin ilk aşamalarında gelir eşitsizliğinin artma eğiliminde olduğu yönündeki literatürü destekler niteliktedir. Ek olarak, çalışmamız ekonomik büyümenin gelir dağılımında anlamlı bir düzelmeye yol açmadığı yönünde kanıtlar ortaya koymaktadır. Son olarak, yönetişim değişkenlerinin modellere eklenmesinin sonuçları değiştirmediği ve bu değişkenlerdeki iyileşmenin gelir dağılımını düzeltici bir etkisi bulunmadığını saptadık. Anahtar kelimeler: Gelir dağılımı, uluslararası krediler, finansal yardım, yönetişim.
Şeçmen Sayısı büyük seçimlerde bilgi üzerinden manipülasyon
This thesis studies manipulations of equilibria by candidates in two-alternativeelections along with their effects on voter turnout, winner of the election and socialwelfare where voters have common values, and both voting and manipulating are costly.We show that manipulation is not desirable for the society, and the candidates? incentivesfor manipulating can be mitigated by appropriately sequencing the order ofmanipulations. We present some results of a manipulation game which may ratherunexpected under the assumption that the candidates have prior beliefs about each others?manipulations. Finally we determine the set of manipulations which can be prevented byinformed voters for a given composition of society.
Kredi olanakları ve serbest meslek sahibi olmak
This thesis analyzes the impact of access to credit on self-employment. Itexamines the influence of knowing a place to borrow on the likelihood of owning abusiness. The analyses are made on farm and non-farm businesses separately. Theimpacts of different borrowing sources are also discussed. In addition, all these analysesare differentiated between male and female self-employment. It is found that access tocredit is a significant determinant of self-employment, but its impacts vary for differentsources of borrowing, the sector of self-employment and the gender of the people.
Özel okulların devlet okulu başarısı üzerindeki etkisi
This thesis analyzes the effects of private schooling on public school quality.The share of private schools in Turkish education system has been continuouslyincreasing especially after the extension of compulsory primary education touninterrupted eight years in 1997. While new regulations are being considered by thegovernment regarding encouraging private schooling, the share of private schoolswill increase and the importance of the relationship between private and publiceducation will also increase.In this study, the effects of private schools on public high schoolachievement, which is measured by Student Selection Examination (ÖSS), in 2003 inTurkey are estimated. Both the percentage of students attending private schools andalternative of it, the percentage of private schools, are treated as endogenousvariables in the model. Private school achievement in previous year is used toidentify a two-stage model. The empirical results showed that private schools havenegative effect on public school achievement.
1994-200 ve 2001 finansal krizlerinden sonra Türk bankacılık sektörünün yapısı
Bu çalışma, Türk bankacılık sektörünün yapısını kriz sonrası düşük enflasyon döneminde incelemiştir. Yeni yaşam alanında bankaların bilançolarında önemli kalemlerin ağırlıkları değişmiştir. Gelir yapısında kredilerden sağlanan gelir azalırken net faiz dışı gelirlerin öneminin artması beklenmektedir. Bankaların yüksek enflasyon döneminde yararlandıkları bazı fırsatlar, düşük enflasyon ortamıyla birlikte azalmaya başlamıştır. Sektöre olan yabancı yatırımcıların ilgisi ve AB üyelik sürecindeki olumlu gelişmeler bankaları yeni enstrümanlar bulmaya veya mevcut yapılarının değiştirmeye yönlendirmiştir. Bu çalışmada sektörün 2001-2004 dönemindeki karlılığı "Panel Data" analizi kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Çalışma sonuçlarına göre bankalarda kar marjlarının azalmasıyla, menkul değer cüzdanlarının küçülmeye başladığı ve mevduatın krediye dönüşme hızının arttığı gözlemlenmiştir. Rekabetle birlikte özel ve yabancı bankaların etkinliklerinin daha hissedilir duruma geldiği, küçük ölçekli bankaların varlığını ancak birleşme, devirlerle devam ettirebileceği anlaşılmıştır. Bankaların düşen enflasyon ortamında, net faiz gelirlerinin azalmasıyla net faiz dışı gelirlerini arttırmaya yönelik faaliyetlerde bulunduğu ortaya çıkmıştır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Bankacılık sektörü, istikrar programı, kriz ve karlılık.
Periyodik olarak çöken rasyonel balonların belirlenmesi
Evans?ın, periyodik olarak çöken rasyonel balonlar söz konusu olduğundageleneksel birim kök ve eşgüdümlü birim kök testlerine getirdiği eleştiriden sonrayeni bir çok yaklaşım öne sürülmüştür. Bu çalışmada, periyodik olarak çökenrasyonel balonların belirlenebilmesi sorununun üstesinden gelmek için yeni birmetod önerilmektedir. Metodumuz Eşik Ardışık Bağımlı Rastlantısal Birim KökModelleri?ne dayanmaktadır. Monte Carlo simülasyonları önerilen testin Evans(1991) çalışmasında sunulan tipten balonların belirlenebilmesi konusunda başarılıolduğunu göstermektedir. Balonların belirlenebilmesi konusunda etkili olmamızınyanında, eşik düzeyini ve balonların çökme olasılıklarını tahmin edebilmekteyiz.1871-2004 yılları arasında ABD hisse senedi fiyatları için elde edilen ampirikbulgular balonların varlığını destekleyici yöndedir.Anahtar Kelimeler: Rasyonel Balonlar, Rastlantısal Birim Kök Modeller
Sıralama problemlerinde kıskançlığı önleyen çözümlerin karakterizasyonu
In this study we are working on queuing problems. In our model a solutionto a queuing problem is an ordering of agents and a transfer vector where thesum of the transfers of agents is equal to zero. Hence a queuing problem is adouble, where we have a ï¬nite set of agents and a proï¬le of payoï¬ functions ofagents which represent their preferences on their orderings and transfers. Weare assuming that the payoï¬ functions of agents are quasi-linear on transfers.Our main aim is to ï¬nd envy free solutions for queuing problems. Since payoï¬functions of agents are quasi-linear envy freeness implies Pareto eï¬ciency. Forproblems where there are less than ï¬ve agents, we show that the set of envyfree solutions is not empty and we are able to characterize the envy freesolutions. We conjecture that our results may be extended to general casesimilar to our extension from three person case to four person case. Whenwe assume that a queuing problem satisï¬es order preservation property weare able to characterize envy free solutions with a solution concept that weintroduce in this study.Keywords: Queuing Problems, No-envy.
Sanayileşmiş ülkelerde enflasyon hedeflemesi fark yaratıyor mu
After it was first adopted by the New Zealand in 1989, inflation targeting (IT)has became quite popular and several other countries have started to design theirmonetary policy strategies within the IT framework. In the literature, there areconsiderable amount of studies which discuss the underlying reasons of thepopularity of IT and several of them come up with the conclusion that the increasedmacroeconomic performance of 1990s is attributable to the IT regime. In this thesis,we will try to discover the differing characteristics of the IT and non-IT countries interms of their revealed aversion to inflation variability which is proposed inCecchetti and Ehrmann (2000) (CE). Furthermore, we will investigate whether thepath followed by the inflation in the aftermath of a demand shock for IT and non-ITcountries are different from each other. All measures which we will be analyzed inthis thesis will be estimated from a semi-structural dynamic time series model usingextended Kalman filtering techniques.
Turev piyasalarinin makroekonomik etkileri
ABSTRACTMACROECONOMIC IMPACTS OF DERIVATIVE MARKETSPolat, Mehtap BeyzaM.A., Department of EconomicsSupervisor: Asst. Prof. Refet GürkaynakDecember 2006There has been much debate over the effect of financial development oneconomic growth and well-being. A conclusion has not been reached yet; some ofthe works assert that the level of financial development leads to soundermacroeconomic conditions, whereas some others hold opposing views. Another lineof literature concentrates on the relation between the level of existing uncertainty andthe level of investment. There are again controversial conclusions reached regardingthis relationship; some argue that the level of uncertainty has a negative effect oninvestment, whereas some argue that the correlation between these two variables ispositive. In this paper, the assertions of these two different lines of the literature willbe linked under a single heading, the derivative markets. This paper will analyze theeffect of the existence and growth rate of the derivative market volume on thestandard of living of individuals under the framework first constructed by Mankiw,Romer and Weil (1992).Keywords: Derivative Markets, Economic Growth
Çok uluslu şirketlerin yer seçiminin sektörel belirleyicileri
ABSTRACTSECTORAL DETERMINANTS OF THE LOCATION CHOICE OF MNCsDemir, Fitnat BanuM.A., Department of EconomicsSupervisor: Asst. Prof. Selin SayekMay 2007This thesis examines the determinants of multinational companies (MNCs)?location choices estimating conditional or nested logit model using a dataset of morethan 17,000 firms invested in 38 developing countries over the period 1980-2004. Inaddition, this dataset has an exceptional feature-it allows identifying the sectors thatthese firms invest in. The sectoral analysis is undertaken both at 2-digit ISI-classification and aggregate level where sectors are lumped according to theirtradability or technology intensity. The empirical results suggest that the determinantsof the probability that a MNC invests in a particular country vary across sectors. Thus,the sectoral composition of FDI is essential for understanding its economicgeography.Keywords: Foreign direct investment, location choice, multinational enterprises,sectors.
Çokuluslu şirketlerin iş gücü piyasalarına etkileri
In this dissertation, the labor market implications of increased foreign rm ac- tivity in the local economy are studied by using a heterogeneous matching model framework. There are a number of unskilled and skilled job seekers, and a number of job vacancies posted by local and foreign rms. In this set up, where all workers can engage in on-the-job search, equilibrium conditions and Nash bargaining approach allows derivation of wages for di¤erent types of workers and rms. Results suggest that wages are a weighted average of labor productivity and unemployment bene t, where the weight depends on the bargaining power of the workers, labor market tightness and the mass of local and foreign vacancies. Results suggest that levels of wages paid by the foreign rm need not always be greater than that paid by the local rm. In fact, the wage di¤erential is found to depend on relative costs, skill endowment and the technological gap between local and foreign rms. An increase in the foreign presence, measured as an increase in the extent of foreign rm vacancy creation, can occur because of an exogenous change in cost of job creation- public policy, technological improvements and skill upgrading. In this context, depending on the cause of an increase in foreign presence we end up with di¤erential relative wage e¤ects. On the other hand, skill intensity of the foreign rms and restrictions iii on labor mobility from foreign to local rms play a crucial role in explaining wage di¤erentials and unemployment.
En-iyi-tepki süreçlerinin limit kümeleri
I analyze limiting behavior of best-reply processes. I find that without inertia Nash Equilibria are not limit sets. Moreover, even for processes with inertia, Nash Equilibria are not stable. I argue that minimal CURB sets are reasonable candidates for limit sets if best-reply processes are indeterminate or Nash Equilibria satisfy evolutionary stability (Oechssler 1997). In such cases, limit sets necessarily contain a Nash Equilibrium. Otherwise limit sets may not be close to any Nash Equilibria unless they satisfy some support consistency condition.
Önden bağış altında Nash pazarlık çözümü
We consider two person bargaining problems under predonation. Before thebargaining solution is applied we allow the alteration of the bargaining set bymeans of pre-donations of a share in one?s would-be payoffs to one?s opponent.Thus, a pre-bargain stage is instituted in which the bargainers may manipulate,via pre-donations, the (Nash) bargaining solution as applied in the nextstage.We firstly concentrate on the simple bargaining problems with bargainingsets that have linear pareto frontier and show that the stronger bargainer(with greater ideal payoff) giving a pre-donation, her best pre-donation transformingthe bargaining set into one on which the Nash bargaining solutiondistributes payoffs so that while other bargainer gets exactly the same payoff(as applied to the original simple bargaining problem), stronger bargainermakes strictly better off. Then, we look for Stackelberg and Nash equilibriaof the so called ?predonation game?. Furthermore, we list our results for twoby two normal form games.
Zaman gecikmeli optimal büyüme modellerinde hopf döngülerinin varlığı üzerine
In this thesis, we analyzed the existence of cycles a la Poincaré-Andronov- Hopf in optimal growth models with time delay. The analysis builds upon a new method developed, which investigates the number of pure imaginary roots of the characteristic equation. The method was applied to the time-to-build models of Asea and Zak (1999) and Winkler (2004).