Econometrics analysis of 1980-2007 Turkey tourism demand: Time series approach

Nowadays, tourism sector attracts attention in lots of developed countries including Turkey and especially in developing countries by creating cultural and dynamic economic effects and it causes to give more importance to tourism in these countries. Along with planning period in Turkey, acceleration of structural change and development in tourism sector started in 1980s and it recorded important developments. This sector has a key position for overcoming economic difficulties in economic trouble periods and worries and it has required to analyse Turkish tourism demand and to reach to outcomes which can light on Tourism Master Plan and Sustainable Development Strategy. In this context, the fundamental of this study is the analysis of relationship between tourism demand for Turkey and economic factors which effect it.With content of the study, it is aimed to estimate Turkish Tourism Demand Model separately for top ten tourist sender countries to Turkey and it is aimed to designate tourism policies. With this aim of direction, Turkish Tourism Demand Models were formed for Turkey by using yearly data for 1980-2007 period by using Wickens-Breusch Error Correction Approach which joins short and long run relationships, by using Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) which reveals the dynamic structure and by using Changing Parameters in the Course of Time (TVP) which enables to change parameter. According to the results of the models, factors which effect the number of coming tourists to Turkey and tourism policies which will be applied in order to these factors were exposed.Key Words: Tourism Demand, Time Series Analysis, Estimation