Changes in sunflower seed and oil production in Türkiye since 1980: structural breaks, trends and future forecasts

Nutrition levels and food supply security are among the fundamental indicators that reveal the development levels of countries today. Vegetable oils hold strategic value not only for healthy and balanced nutrition but also for industry and foreign trade. In Turkey, one of the most important sources for meeting the need for vegetable oils is sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.), which occupies a decisive position both in agricultural production and in foreign trade balances. In our country, support premiums for oilseed sunflowers were first implemented in 1989. This support was introduced to encourage sunflower production and to reduce the vegetable oil deficit. However, in 2006, oilseed sunflower was further emphasized, granted the status of a "strategic product," and the level of support was increased. During this period, premiums provided specifically for oilseed sunflower were raised, with the aim of expanding production and cultivation areas. Turkey's annual sunflower production is approximately 2.3–2.5 million tons. The vast majority of this production, about 85–90%, is utilized as oilseed, while the remaining part is consumed as confectionery sunflower seeds. Given the growing population and rising consumption demand, current production levels remain insufficient, making it necessary to import significant amounts of crude oil and oilseeds. Increasing sunflower production capacity and establishing a sustainable production structure are critically important for reducing external dependency and ensuring food security. In this thesis, global data on sunflower seeds and sunflower oil production, imports, and exports from 1980 to 2023 were analyzed in detail. In addition, the effects of the Russia–Ukraine war, which began in 2022, and the related grain corridor impact on sunflower foreign trade were evaluated, with a comparative analysis of the pre-war period (2019–2021) and the war years (2022–2023). At the national level, sunflower seed and sunflower oil production, imports, and exports in Turkey between 1991 and 2023 were examined. As a future projection, analyses were carried out for the five years following 2023. In the study, trend analysis and the Box–Jenkins (ARIMA) model were employed to make forecasts, using statistical data from sources such as TÜİK and FAO. The research results demonstrate that current production levels are unlikely to meet increasing demand in the short term. The solution lies in gradual changes in import policies and strong support for domestic production through appropriate state policies. To enhance the effectiveness of support measures, it is necessary to take into account producer profiles and field conditions, strengthen monitoring mechanisms, and ensure efficiency in resource use. In this way, a stronger and more sustainable structure in oilseed production and vegetable oil supply can be established.