Analysis of the relationship between exports, imports and economic growth in Turkey after the year 2000

Export and import, which are the determining factors of economic growth, has been the the subject of much research in recent years. Economies of the country with the industrialization policies implemented especially in connection with the globalization movements after 1980, have witnessed a structural transformation. In this study entitled analysis of the relationship between exports, imports and economic growth in Turkey after the year 2000, the effects of foreign trade on economic growth, which is curious in recent years, have been examined. Between 2000-2018, econometric analyzes have been made using export, import, and gross domestic product (GDP) data. To determine stationarity of these variables, it was concluded that they were stationary in their first difference by perfoming the ADF unit root test. The fact that all variables were stationary in their first difference led to testing whether there is cointegration in the long run. Also, it is concluded that the variables are cointegrated with the Johansen Cointegration test. For the VAR model prediction to be healthy, it is important to determine the optimal lag length. According to the Akaike information criterion, the appropriate lag length has been determined as 5. When the VAR model is analyzed, it is determined that the residuals are distributed normally and there are no variance and autocorrelation problems. Granger causality test has been used to determine causality among the variables. Consequently, the one-way causality relationship from import to economic growth and exports was determined. Variance decomposition and impulse-response analyzes also confirm the results of the analysis. The results also have the quality to support the import-based growth model in Turkey. As a policy proposal, it is considered that it may be appropriate to put in place macroeconomic policies aimed at cutting imports and increasing exports.