Abrams eğrisinin Türkiye için geçerliliği

Unemployment is one of the most important macroeconomic problems for both developing and developed countries. Turkey also has been obliged to contend with unemployment and youth unemployment over the years. Unemployment has been associated with many reasons. One of these is the direct relationship between government size and unemployment, first proposed by Abrams (1999). This study purposes to investigate the validity of Abrams curve in terms of both unemployment and youth unemployment for Turkey to show larger government size increases unemployment. For this purpose, four different models were formed for unemployment and youth unemployment and ARDL bounds test approach and Granger causality analysis were applied to the models over the period of 1994-2018. According to the empirical results, conclusions that confirm the validity of the Abrams curve for both unemployment and youth unemployment were reached. Furthermore, the Granger causality test results show that there is a one-way causal relationship from government size to unemployment. For youth unemployment, any causality between youth unemployment and government size was not found. Keywords: Unemployment, Youth Unemployment, Government Size, Abrams Curve, ARDL Approach, Granger Causality.