Almanya'nın Avrupa Birliği'ndeki ve AB-Türkiye ilişkilerindeki rollerinde değişim ve devamlılık: Merkel dönemi üzerine rol-teorik bir analiz

The aim of this role-theoretical study is to detect the degree of transformation in German foreign policy on the basis of its role-set within the EU as well as the causes behind this phenomenon. More specifically, it attempts to investigate the stability (or instability) in the role conceptions of Germany during the Merkel era and within the EU, but also the factors leading to this outcome. Indeed, although it is of crucial importance to explore the degree of change and continuity in Germany's role-set, which combines its various role conceptions, it is even more important to unveil the driving forces behind this phenomenon. In this regard, this thesis examines the impact of the state-level ideational elements, namely national memory and values, on the construction and reconstruction of the roles through comprehensive textual analysis. The identification of the state-level ideational elements as the independent variables highlights the ontological stance of this thesis, which integrates role theory with unit-level constructivism. On this point, however, it should be underlined that this study does not argue that the role conceptions are solely products of state-level ideational factors. The role conceptions (aka roles) might have numerous sources besides these factors. Yet whereas certain role conceptions might mainly stem from national memory and values, these factors might be relatively weak in the construction of other role conceptions. It is on the basis of this classification that the main hypothesis of this thesis is formulated: The more the state-level ideational elements nourish the role conceptions of Germany, the more stable these roles become. In order to explore whether there is a relationship between the stability (or vulnerability) of the role conceptions and the presence (or absence) of the said ideational elements, as suggested by the hypothesis, it is necessary to unveil two phenomena: the degree of transformation in various role conceptions of Germany and the weight of the national memory and values in the construction of these roles. With regard to the detection of the role conceptions and their fluctuations in the course of the Merkel era, this thesis makes use of a new and broad role typology that serves as a basis for an in-depth analysis. For the purpose of providing a complete panorama as regards the foreign policy orientations of Germany within the EU and throughout the Merkel era, the role typology includes ten different role groups, ranging from the roles related to the integration method to the ones on the security policies of the Union. Each role group, on the other hand, is composed of three role alternatives that might be selected by a member state, namely the role, the anti-role and the limbo-role. It is on the basis of this trilemma that the transformation in Germany's role-set is observed in this thesis in an attempt to better capture various dimensions of role change. This perspective reveals not only whether Germany's main orientations within the EU experienced an intensification or weakening, but also whether they were put into question and challenged by alternative orientations during the Merkel era. Also, it is on the basis of this perspective that the impact of the national memory and values on the selection, continued attachment, review or exclusion of one of three role options is explored. When attempting to address its central research question, this study makes use of a qualitative method, namely the frame analysis. The frame analysis is essentially applied to unveil firstly Germany's role conceptions and secondly the sources of these role conceptions in the texts of the speeches delivered by the German leaders. In this sense, this thesis employs a two-staged frame analysis. In the same texts of the speeches delivered by the decision-makers, both the frames related to the roles of Germany and the frames regarding the grounds of these roles are coded. Thus, while the first step attempts to unveil how the role of Germany within the EU, in other words the appropriate behavior in the relevant field is framed, the second step is intended to understand how the detected frame is framed. Accordingly, the statements of Chancellor Merkel, the ministers of foreign affairs and the federal presidents between the years 2005-2021 are processed on the basis of frame analysis. The cumulative number of these texts is 1765. Since the dataset is composed of a very large number of units, a software program, namely MAXQDA is utilized during the coding process in order to arrange and classify the results of the textual analysis. Besides these observations as regards the change and continuity in Germany's role-set as well as the impact of state-level ideational elements on this outcome, this thesis also analyzes the stability (or instability) of German foreign policy through its role performance. Recognizing that change and continuity in the foreign policy of a country requires the assessment of not only the ways the decision-makers perceive the roles of their country, but also the actual behaviors of this actor, this study analyzes the roles performed by Germany in EU-Turkey relations. By doing this, it attempts to verify whether the role conceptions detected during the textual analysis were actually enacted on the EU-scene, when it came to the various dimensions of EU-Turkey relations. These dimensions are namely the accession negotiations, the modernization of the customs union, the cooperation in the field of migration as well as the disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean. In this regard, the examination of the role performance serves to test the findings with regard to Germany's role-set in the EU-context, but also to observe the implications of the role conceptions on Germany's approach to EU-Turkey relations. This analysis is also carried out through a qualitative method, this time process-tracing. In order to observe how the interplay among the requirements of various role conceptions affected Germany's foreign policy behavior in four cases of EU-Turkey relations, semi-structured interviews were conducted with officials, politicians and experts from Germany, Turkey and the EU, in addition to making use of relevant academic work, official documents and other primary and secondary sources. As a result of these examinations, and in response to its research question(s), this thesis argues that it would be erroneous to qualify German foreign policy as a paragon of stability, or as a field characterized by constant and comprehensive changes. Germany's role-set, or in broader terms, German foreign policy within the EU was marked by both change and continuity during the Merkel era, while the presence (or absence) of the state-level ideational elements in the construction of these role conceptions appears as the cause behind this differentiation. The role conceptions that were heavily shaped by the national memory and values, first and foremost the advocate of European project, the defender of the EU values, the trading state, but also the promoter of deepening and the Atlanticist, were also the most stable ones during the Merkel era. On the contrary, the remaining role conceptions were vulnerable and unstable as their limbo-roles and anti-roles were major components of Germany's role-set. This indicates that the selection of the appropriate orientation and the exclusion of alternative roles by Germany go in parallel with the presence of a perception with regard to the prescription of the national history and values. Yet in addition to stabilizing the role, it was explored that the state-level ideational elements might also have another impact on the change and continuity of the role conceptions as role-transformers or anti-role blockers. As for the change and continuity in the role performance of Germany, overall, it was observed that the main role conceptions of Germany were actually performed when it came to various dimensions of EU-Turkey relations. It means that the impact of Germany's role-set on its attitude towards EU-Turkey relations was evident in different contexts. Besides, it was found out that the foreign policy of Germany vis-à-vis EU-Turkey relations was marked by interrole conflicts. The implications of these interrole conflicts on the foreign policy of Germany were twofold. On the one hand, when performed, the constituents of the role-set led to occasional ups and downs in the stance of this country vis-à-vis EU-Turkey relations. On the other hand, these interrole conflicts privileged the adoption of moderate foreign policy options. Hence, the policies chosen and pursued by the German leaders can be considered as the lowest common denominator of the prescriptions of the roles, which corresponds to the middle or close to the middle of the spectrum of policy options.