Analysis of supply chain risks by structural equation model and fuzzy analytical hierarchy process

Supply chain risk management activities attempt to eliminate or minimize the effects of risks that businesses face or may encounter within the scope of supply chain activities. The main aim of this study was to define, decide, and prioritize the supply chain risk factors. In the content of the study, firstly, supply chain risks from the literature were gathered and the obtained risks were grouped and combined. Afterward, a summary of the risk table to be considered in the study was created. Secondly, a questionnaire was created to evaluate the risks in the created risk table, and evaluations were received from 391 users. According to the collected results, the main risks were evaluated statistically with the help of the Structural Equation Model (SEM), and then sub-risks were prioritized by the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy AHP) method according to the model results. With the help of the obtained results, action plan suggestions have been developed for individuals and/or businesses in the supply chain over prioritized risks. Pareto Analysis was used to determine the sub-risks hosted by the main risks and the sub-risks that will be included in the action plan. According to the results of the study, supply and demand risks were obtained as the most important main risks; procurement cost; frequency of material design changes, inaccurate demand forecasts, risks arising from supplier, risks arising from the costumer, transit time variability, short lead times and product's life cycle risks were identified as the most important sub-risks in the action plan.