Artificial intelligence 'Arms dynamics': The case of the uUnited States and China rivalry

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has undergone rapid evolution, not only by penetrating every aspect of our life but also by transitioning from theoretical concepts to foundational components of modern military strategy. This transformation is characterized by the development of AI technologies that enhance decision-making, surveillance, and combat operations, fundamentally altering the nature of warfare. As AI applications become increasingly sophisticated, they offer both unprecedented opportunities and complex challenges for national defense mechanisms, setting the stage for a new era in military capabilities. This dissertation delves into the heart of this evolution, focusing on the escalating AI arms rivalry between the United States and China. Drawing upon Barry Buzan's theoretical frameworks, the study employs qualitative and quantitative research methods, including content analysis of policy documents, speeches, and strategic communications from both nations, analyzation of defense and AI expenses, etc. to explore the motivations, developments, and potential outcomes of this rivalry. The thesis begins by outlining the historical development of AI, distinguishing its military from civilian applications, and highlighting the dual-use nature of these technologies. It then delves into the theoretical underpinnings of arms dynamics, employing Buzan's models—action-reaction, domestic structure, and technological imperative—to frame the analysis. The research systematically compares the AI military capabilities of the U.S. and China, assessing their strategic documents, investments in AI technologies, and the integration of AI into military operations. Findings from the study indicate that both countries perceive AI as a pivotal element of future warfare and national security, leading to significant investments in research and development. The U.S., with its historically dominant military-technological edge, seeks to maintain its superiority through innovation and strategic partnerships. Conversely, China's ambitious AI strategy aims to establish its leadership in AI technology by 2030, challenging U.S. dominance and reshaping the global security landscape. The analysis reveals that rather than an AI arms race where the possibility for warfare should be high, the rivalry between U.S.-China is more an AI arms competition with both states not willing to start a direct war with each other, at least for the short term. Furthermore, the study finds out that the AI arms competition between both states is driven by both external threats and internal motivations, however, the technological imperative -which is considered as an independent variable- is the main driving force behind this rivalry. In conclusion, the research suggests that the AI arms competition between the U.S. and China is a defining feature of contemporary international security dynamics, with profound implications for global stability.