Evaluation of the possibility of Turkey in the process of the European Union negotiation

In this study it will be evaluated Turkey's membership in the European Union Accession Process Chance. In the first part of the study, in 1959 the European Economic Community and Turkey (EEC) in the first contact until today described the last negotiation process, has addressed the important event. In this phase, which was signed in 1963, the Treaty of Ankara, the freezing of negotiations in the 1980s, in 1987 the EEC application for full membership, Turkey's Customs Union to join in 1996, at the Helsinki Summit in 1999, making Turkey the candidate countries, 2005 in Turkey and the European Union (EU) to start full membership negotiations and with reference to the events in the period up to the present from 2005, likely seen problems if Turkey's EU full membership of Turkey into the European Union of the causes of other countries and the slow progress of negotiations how other countries looked at membership. In the second part of the study, EU membership prospects were estimated using nine economic criteria for the period 2010 - 2017. In the study, for the variables that will represent the individual characteristics of EU countries, the three main variables in the Maastricht Agreement, namely public balance, state debt and inflation rate were used. In addition, nine economic criteria were used, namely the democracy index data, GINI coefficient, long-term unemployment rate, research & development (R&D) rate, education expenditure rate and GNP growth rate. In the study, firstly, Factor Analysis (FA), which is a multivariate statistical method, was applied and then the logit model was estimated by using the logit model as an independent variable and the membership probabilities for the countries were calculated. Keywords: European Union, EEC, Ankara Agreement, Customs Union, Helsinki Summit, Maastricht Agreement, GINI, A&G ratio, GNP, Factor Analysis, logit model