Relationship between bank share certificates to macroeconomic variables investigation of logistics regression method

Forecasting the affects of macroeconomic indicators on financial instruments is very important for both policymakers and investors. In this study, the affects of selected macroeconomic variables on equity share of banks operanding in BİST 100 Indeks was tried to analyse. In the first chapter,it was supplied the basic concepts of equity share; in second chapter thereby the relations between macroeconomic variables and equity share returns was mentioned, it was given a place to the literature works. In third chapter, it is viewed that both theoretical frame of logistic regression analysis and the model used in analysis. While the equity share of 10 bank was implicated in to model as dependent variable, 8 amount of macroeconomic indicator (exchange rate, money supply, inflation, deposit interest rate, S&P 500 index, gold, industrial production index, USA benchmark interest rate) was implicated in to a model as independent variable. As a result of this work involving the period of 2006 January-2017 December, it was observed that changes taken place in S&P 500 index have positive effect on all equity share returns. It was seen that exchange rate and USA benchmark interest rate are the other important indicators on equity share returns. Key Words: Logistic Regression Analysis, Equity Share, Banking Sector.