The impact of personel and SME loans in the banking sector on economic growth: The case of Turkey

Examination of the relationship between economic growth, which is one of the most important elements of macroeconomic policies and which is based on production increase, and bank loans has been a subject of research from past to present. Bank loans affect both the supply and demand side of the economy. Personel loans affect demand in the economy. As the demand affects supply, the production and sales of many sectors, especially the construction sector, are indirectly affected. The financial support and project-based supports provided to SMEs, which are in the process of rapid growth and include the majority of companies in the country, contribute positively to the production and export of SMEs. In this thesis, the economic growth and development process of the banking sector have been examined over the years. In the analysis part of the study, the relationship between personel and SME banking loans and economic growth between 2007 and 2019 is analyzed with quarterly data. Unit root tests to determine the stationarity structures of the variables, Johansen cointegration tests to determine the long-term relationship between them, and Granger Causality analysis to determine the short-term causality relationship were applied. There is a long-term cointegration relationship between the variables, and a causality relationship from growth to SME loans in the short term has been determined.