Brexit'in gölgesinde Türkiye ve Birleşik Krallık arasındaki ticaret üzerine bir ampirik analiz

This thesis analyzes Turkey-the UK international trade by developing an empirical model from the sectoral point of view. While doing this, the potential impact of alternative Brexit scenarios on the Turkish trade with the UK is attempted to be investigated by using an econometric model that provides a quantitative perspective. It is concluded that Turkish export prices, the UK's value added, world export prices and general economic activity of the UK have more effect on the exports of Turkey to the UK market. On the other hand, Turkish import prices, Turkey's value added and general economic activities of Turkey are the most important factors in explaining Turkish import demand from the UK. Tariffs of the UK applied to Turkish exports and of Turkey applied to UK's exports have a limited influence on the export demand and import demand. Considering the alternative Brexit scenarios, it is found that the agricultural sectors will be affected primarily whereas the WTO Model has the highest negative impact on Turkey's exports to and imports from the UK.