The impact of Bitcoin and global factors on BIST-100

In this work, the vector autoregression (VAR) analysis and Granger causality tests were employed to investigate the connection between the BIST100 and the gold price, the oil price the exchange rate, the VIX, and the Bitcoin price. The analysis included datasets on a daily and monthly basis, spanning from February 2012 to February 2024. Based on the VAR analysis, the BIST100 index was most influenced by its own performance, followed by the exchange rate and the interest rate. The investigation revealed that the BIST100 index was also significantly impacted by the VIX. Furthermore, it was discovered that Bitcoin had a growing impact on the BIST100 over time. This implies that cryptocurrencies are becoming more significant in explaining the performance of the stock market. The findings of causality tests indicated that there was a significant Granger causality relationship from exchange rate to BIST100. For investors, portfolio managers, and scholars, there are significant implications.