Analysis of the supplied mathematical models for prediction of the progress of communicable diseases

In this thesis, primarily the compartment models used in the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases are mentioned. Afterwards, a general information was given about HIV and AIDS, which will be examined. Using the HIV/AIDS data set for the years 1985-2011 published by the Ministry of Health, an application was made about the spread of HIV virus with the help of the SI Model. In this study, descriptive statistics, normal distribution, and correlation analyzes were performed on the data. Support was obtained from MATLAB R2020b and IBM SPSS Statistics 20 package programs for analysis. As a result of SPSS analysis, AIDS showed a normal distribution, HIV was not normally distributed. As a result of the correlation analysis, a high and positive correlation of 0.868 was obtained between AIDS and HIV. With the help of the MATLAB program, the spread rate of the HIV virus is included.