Investigation of the causes of water recession in Kuyucuk Lake, Arpaçay district, Kars province through GIS-based analysis

This study examines the drying process of Lake Kuyucuk, one of Turkey's important Ramsar sites. Considering the ecological and socio-economic importance of the lake and its surroundings, the effects of climate change and human-induced factors on the lake have been investigated. Meteorological data were obtained from the General Directorate of Meteorology, while the technical and hydrological characteristics of the reservoirs constructed in the study area were obtained from the State Hydraulic Works (DSİ) institution. Subsequently, potential evaporation in the region was calculated using the Thornthwaite evaporation method analysis, temperatures on the lake surface were determined using the inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation method, and temperature maps of the lake surface were created using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The locations of reservoirs in the lake basin and rivers supplying water to the lake were also mapped. The observed shrinkage process on the lake surface was monitored annually using satellite images. Additionally, the water storage capacities of ponds constructed for agricultural irrigation and livestock purposes were calculated, and the effects of these structures on the lake were evaluated. Based on the findings, the extent to which Kuyucuk Lake has shrunk in recent years due to increased evaporation, decreased rainfall, and the construction of reservoirs has been determined. The results emphasize the need to consider the effects of climate change for the protection and sustainable management of wetlands. Keywords: Kuyucuk Lake, IDW (Inverse Distance Weighted Interpolation Method), Thornthwaite Method, GIS (Geographic Information Systems)